It's actually as simple as:
1. refineries put off purchasing oil since they sometimes experience backwardation...=the cost of their material is higher than its derivitives...
2. refinery stockpiles run low and they need replenishment...
3. refineries hire tankers to replenish the dwindling supplies...
4. refineries raise prices and bank cash
5. start again at step 1
by the way - shippers are slowing their vessels to conserve fuel - so maybe my buoyancy compensation plan is a good idea - everyone grow a FRO, cut it, and throw it in the sea to help the ships glide along...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
I've got a FROeelin..
a freelin that's probly wrong ... oh yeah
*** 05/09/2008 *** and was in a twisterd kinda waze...
I may have cut my FRO and tossed it to the sea so the FROships could sail faster, but I certainly don't think my hairstyle buoyancy compensation plan is responsible for the FRally in FRO as of late. I do have a ridiculous idea or 2 as to why I think this BOOM in Oil prices may have an unexpected affect on FRO...normally - high oil cost = low demand = tanker bad....tanker stock down..:(
but perhaps at some optimum rate of oil cost the table turns due to the related rate of insurance premiums. So as insurance premiums go through the roof raising tanker day rates, but not profit margins - everybody loses right...?
wrong...!
Frontline tanker with the largest fleet of VLCC's dans le monde may have leveraging power to lower many operating costs on a per ship basis, and some that are particularly peculiar now that oil is 80 to 125 a barrel. Savings on the cost of insurance and crewing operations is where larger scale shipping companies may have financial advantages compared to smaller competitors who cannot spread out their risk portfolios to satisfy underwriters or dockside logistical suppliers and service providers when negotiating insurance rates or operational port facility rates respectively. Competitors actual rates to customers are raised across the board to accommodate for rising industry rates for common services like insurance etc...
The margin breaks at some point and extra profit FRO has from this difference allows them to experience significantly higher margins than smaller competitors...
***05/09/2008 --> Unreliable Fact-Checking Update *** HAHa...the irony here is delightful - the above theory turned out to seemingly to be quite humorously twisted... - turns out FRO's smaller competitors like NAT may be achieving the lowest overall per vessel running rates in the SuezMax industry at least... and by outsourcing the above mentioned hypothesized services....guess who a major outsourcing service provider is to NAT --> Frontline Tanker Ltd.! HAhA......So interestingly, FRO cannot achieve the lowest per ship rates but can leverage it's operations to provide OSsvcs enabling others to lower their rates...hmm--> i have a lot of ideas about this right now but before i start conjecturing....I'm going to go to Friday night... :)
or..
there's always the downside... if the price of oil goes down ... demand will go up and tankers will be even busier ...
every campaign of business pleasure or otherwise probably requires a standby oil reserve to garauntee smooth operations against a diverse set of contingencies... bla bla bla .... this is starting to sound like it belongs on blarchive.com
almost forgot - I said two ways... - as the price of the cargo goes up the overall shipping cost becomes less of a percentage of the total cost to buyers - so incremental tanker day rate increases may not be as big of a nuisance as they once were
in other words - I have no idea...but FRO goes up and FRO goes down...churning out dividends all year round..
*** 05/09/2008 *** and was in a twisterd kinda waze...
I may have cut my FRO and tossed it to the sea so the FROships could sail faster, but I certainly don't think my hairstyle buoyancy compensation plan is responsible for the FRally in FRO as of late. I do have a ridiculous idea or 2 as to why I think this BOOM in Oil prices may have an unexpected affect on FRO...normally - high oil cost = low demand = tanker bad....tanker stock down..:(
but perhaps at some optimum rate of oil cost the table turns due to the related rate of insurance premiums. So as insurance premiums go through the roof raising tanker day rates, but not profit margins - everybody loses right...?
wrong...!
Frontline tanker with the largest fleet of VLCC's dans le monde may have leveraging power to lower many operating costs on a per ship basis, and some that are particularly peculiar now that oil is 80 to 125 a barrel. Savings on the cost of insurance and crewing operations is where larger scale shipping companies may have financial advantages compared to smaller competitors who cannot spread out their risk portfolios to satisfy underwriters or dockside logistical suppliers and service providers when negotiating insurance rates or operational port facility rates respectively. Competitors actual rates to customers are raised across the board to accommodate for rising industry rates for common services like insurance etc...
The margin breaks at some point and extra profit FRO has from this difference allows them to experience significantly higher margins than smaller competitors...
***05/09/2008 --> Unreliable Fact-Checking Update *** HAHa...the irony here is delightful - the above theory turned out to seemingly to be quite humorously twisted... - turns out FRO's smaller competitors like NAT may be achieving the lowest overall per vessel running rates in the SuezMax industry at least... and by outsourcing the above mentioned hypothesized services....guess who a major outsourcing service provider is to NAT --> Frontline Tanker Ltd.! HAhA......So interestingly, FRO cannot achieve the lowest per ship rates but can leverage it's operations to provide OSsvcs enabling others to lower their rates...hmm--> i have a lot of ideas about this right now but before i start conjecturing....I'm going to go to Friday night... :)
or..
there's always the downside... if the price of oil goes down ... demand will go up and tankers will be even busier ...
every campaign of business pleasure or otherwise probably requires a standby oil reserve to garauntee smooth operations against a diverse set of contingencies... bla bla bla .... this is starting to sound like it belongs on blarchive.com
almost forgot - I said two ways... - as the price of the cargo goes up the overall shipping cost becomes less of a percentage of the total cost to buyers - so incremental tanker day rate increases may not be as big of a nuisance as they once were
in other words - I have no idea...but FRO goes up and FRO goes down...churning out dividends all year round..
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Walking on the Wild Side Again...
IPI - Intrepid Potash
This is some hot sh*#...
had to get some - although I still think this is risky - I may pick up more if under 50
good luck if you like the frightening unknown to surprise you either way...
for those of you who are screaming greening...
with the price of potash over-doubling as of late, and demand continuing to out pace available production capacities...cleaner practices involving re-uptake from run off will surely start to become more feasible in terms of profitability...
here's another spot for innovation - stretching the yield of traditional fertilizers by altering pre-delivery preparatory, delivery, and re-uptake methods to maximize energy conversion of the fertilizer...
I have a few ideas already...
This is some hot sh*#...
had to get some - although I still think this is risky - I may pick up more if under 50
good luck if you like the frightening unknown to surprise you either way...
for those of you who are screaming greening...
with the price of potash over-doubling as of late, and demand continuing to out pace available production capacities...cleaner practices involving re-uptake from run off will surely start to become more feasible in terms of profitability...
here's another spot for innovation - stretching the yield of traditional fertilizers by altering pre-delivery preparatory, delivery, and re-uptake methods to maximize energy conversion of the fertilizer...
I have a few ideas already...
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Tankers in the Sky with Diamonds
Do we have to have another stale news report - will I ever shut up about the tankers in the sky?
No, not this time and probably not....
more on this later...suffice it to say today jets are burning up all the fuel and companies like XTO will profit from rising fuel costs and all sorts of tendencies to substitute with natural gas for reasonable applications where other forms of fuel were once used in lieu de NatGas...
or they will just keep growing 20% per year in production while ending each year with more reserves than the previous...
either way this is a strong equity brand...
XTO - buy a little here a little there and more on the dips
No, not this time and probably not....
more on this later...suffice it to say today jets are burning up all the fuel and companies like XTO will profit from rising fuel costs and all sorts of tendencies to substitute with natural gas for reasonable applications where other forms of fuel were once used in lieu de NatGas...
or they will just keep growing 20% per year in production while ending each year with more reserves than the previous...
either way this is a strong equity brand...
XTO - buy a little here a little there and more on the dips
2K Eagle Millenium Resolution Strategy Revision
Light wave trials particle ularly dark roly poly wormy holy swirlions and universal matter splatter flatter theories ... Part 1: In The Shade of Tomorrow's Sun
...accidentally learn to blindly train Seeing Eye dogs and then walk through life eyes closed mind open – knowing that even if dogs become lost … another can be trained while searching...and keep walking confidently ... eyes closed ... mind open ...
alas...
answers can be discovered ...
...for those the truth reveals
some nurture sprouts of earths...
...others heal entropies quirks
whichever eyes mind's desire applies to open...
...might SeaWorlds spinning flows full of twirling swirls beneath the tossed 2nFRO's
forward strobing of future flashy glows are all we see with common insights toes...
...eyes to see what's missed the most important of all
can't be found with noon-shower spotlights 5 eyes and a scope...
...if simple intuition and knowledge are all eyes nose
...accidentally learn to blindly train Seeing Eye dogs and then walk through life eyes closed mind open – knowing that even if dogs become lost … another can be trained while searching...and keep walking confidently ... eyes closed ... mind open ...
alas...
answers can be discovered ...
...for those the truth reveals
some nurture sprouts of earths...
...others heal entropies quirks
whichever eyes mind's desire applies to open...
...might SeaWorlds spinning flows full of twirling swirls beneath the tossed 2nFRO's
forward strobing of future flashy glows are all we see with common insights toes...
...eyes to see what's missed the most important of all
can't be found with noon-shower spotlights 5 eyes and a scope...
...if simple intuition and knowledge are all eyes nose
Futuristic Channel Surfing...
gandering mathematicals and simplisms to make guestemations with magnanormously and significantly plausible degrees of impact intensity variance bounded within the higher-order positively skewed outcome ranges...
so - looking for possible future trading ranges using simplistic equations and some visual queues
XOM ~|104.96 ~ 125.29|
FRO ~|65.72 ~ 77.82|
AAPL ~|186.01 ~ 369.12|
PBR ~|186.69 ~ 179.1| ~ this stock is inside out and may split...
GOOG ~|982 ~ 1312|
POT ~|232.74 ~ 216.4| ~ this stock is inside out and may split...
COP ~|110.66 ~ 130.3|
RIO ~|51.7 ~ 60.54|
BOOM ~|101.57 ~ 113.99|* - this stock has a strong likely hood of rapidly hitting 53
*pattern and score seems whacked
so - looking for possible future trading ranges using simplistic equations and some visual queues
XOM ~|104.96 ~ 125.29|
FRO ~|65.72 ~ 77.82|
AAPL ~|186.01 ~ 369.12|
PBR ~|186.69 ~ 179.1| ~ this stock is inside out and may split...
GOOG ~|982 ~ 1312|
POT ~|232.74 ~ 216.4| ~ this stock is inside out and may split...
COP ~|110.66 ~ 130.3|
RIO ~|51.7 ~ 60.54|
BOOM ~|101.57 ~ 113.99|* - this stock has a strong likely hood of rapidly hitting 53
*pattern and score seems whacked
2008 Retrades Adds & Drops
Retrades of previously closed positions:
POT
AMSC
BOOM
ACH
SGR
DSTI
AUY
New Positions in 2008:
AGU
ABB
NTDOY
RIO
YHOO
TOGNUM
SHI
schnitzel trades abounding around core positions:
AAPL
GOOG
PBR ~187|
BOOM
AMSC
POT
FRO
FCEL
DROPPED:
FSLR (upper technical bound is way out~536| and PE is enormous)
POT
AMSC
BOOM
ACH
SGR
DSTI
AUY
New Positions in 2008:
AGU
ABB
NTDOY
RIO
YHOO
TOGNUM
SHI
schnitzel trades abounding around core positions:
AAPL
GOOG
PBR ~187|
BOOM
AMSC
POT
FRO
FCEL
DROPPED:
FSLR (upper technical bound is way out~536| and PE is enormous)
Psychotrade eSpeciale
PZE is testing 13 again ... following a downward sloping channel of normalizing response to an incorrect news report/correction spike - the effect is nearing an end and there should be another wave of slightly larger ripples for the most daring traders as this neurotransmitter FrenziFest finally settles on a baseline price ...
Well you might ask -- why is this a special case -- stocks go up too high and fall al the time - settle to a baseline and once the re-corrections are dissipated there's usuallya strong likelihood for severely delaying PopLackage cycle or 2 before retesting the over-correction wave pattern's lower shelf boundaries...
answer:
in this case the stock was up with some momentum already and then was artificially inflated HUGE in a relatively small time accelerating and amplifying existing momentum while bringing heavy share volumes from new investors thereby adding even more intrinsic momentum to the table...--however refineries in 3rd world countries became riskier just as the re-correction waves began starting them in a downward sloping channel -- this resulted in the normalization process seeking too low a price so once it was complete the stock popped again and retested 13 where it left off - this is now..
But Wait - there's more -
so now the stock has to find where it would be if it's trend had continued without disruption by this new event that sent it instantly sailing into the stratosphere..
my best guess is that it will at the very least begin to unfurl an expanding wave pattern sloping upwardly toward 16 - with various extreme falling knife points along the way making HUGE trading opportunities for those who beg for pain where mercy has never been found...Timing these - if they occur - will be a tedious nightmare that I will have to miss out on .. :)
Well you might ask -- why is this a special case -- stocks go up too high and fall al the time - settle to a baseline and once the re-corrections are dissipated there's usuallya strong likelihood for severely delaying PopLackage cycle or 2 before retesting the over-correction wave pattern's lower shelf boundaries...
answer:
in this case the stock was up with some momentum already and then was artificially inflated HUGE in a relatively small time accelerating and amplifying existing momentum while bringing heavy share volumes from new investors thereby adding even more intrinsic momentum to the table...--however refineries in 3rd world countries became riskier just as the re-correction waves began starting them in a downward sloping channel -- this resulted in the normalization process seeking too low a price so once it was complete the stock popped again and retested 13 where it left off - this is now..
But Wait - there's more -
so now the stock has to find where it would be if it's trend had continued without disruption by this new event that sent it instantly sailing into the stratosphere..
my best guess is that it will at the very least begin to unfurl an expanding wave pattern sloping upwardly toward 16 - with various extreme falling knife points along the way making HUGE trading opportunities for those who beg for pain where mercy has never been found...Timing these - if they occur - will be a tedious nightmare that I will have to miss out on .. :)
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