Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
GreenSpan Wrong? ... No...
he couldn't be wrong - let's see..
he lowered rates so everyone could afford to buy expensive things in the interest rate environment he created
then he set the interest rate environment to expire before the buyers could accelerate beyond their economic escape velocity (ex. in real -estate; getting beyond momentum value swings and into real solid equity growth from time/population/wage growth) , so they were doomed to crash if they didn't have a bailout plan or a lucky parachute under the seat...
then he failed to recommend the long-term interest rate problem be corrected before everyone crashed
and to this day - the Feds still have not lowered long-term interest rates to help anyone out...I guess we'll have to wait until after the election to get lower long-term borrowing rates
he lowered rates so everyone could afford to buy expensive things in the interest rate environment he created
then he set the interest rate environment to expire before the buyers could accelerate beyond their economic escape velocity (ex. in real -estate; getting beyond momentum value swings and into real solid equity growth from time/population/wage growth) , so they were doomed to crash if they didn't have a bailout plan or a lucky parachute under the seat...
then he failed to recommend the long-term interest rate problem be corrected before everyone crashed
and to this day - the Feds still have not lowered long-term interest rates to help anyone out...I guess we'll have to wait until after the election to get lower long-term borrowing rates
PBR has bitten badly..
moving PBR monies to FRO
this will probably produce a bottom itself alone...couldn't take the Brazilian brand of risk anymore...
a little history:
PBR does great... finds tons of oil, biggest find in decades - develops world's largest renewable diesel production and distribution network
then, borrows tons to build fancy deep water rigs - then the workers strike and want a cut, then the govt wants to cut in and profit share with Brazil, then oil prices drop, now credit markets are dry and PBR can't issue bonds or raise capital from loans to develop their oil finds which need very high prices to be profitable in the first place...
so when I say MISTAKE - I mean - "NOT SELLING PBR @72ish with the Brain"
this will probably produce a bottom itself alone...couldn't take the Brazilian brand of risk anymore...
a little history:
PBR does great... finds tons of oil, biggest find in decades - develops world's largest renewable diesel production and distribution network
then, borrows tons to build fancy deep water rigs - then the workers strike and want a cut, then the govt wants to cut in and profit share with Brazil, then oil prices drop, now credit markets are dry and PBR can't issue bonds or raise capital from loans to develop their oil finds which need very high prices to be profitable in the first place...
so when I say MISTAKE - I mean - "NOT SELLING PBR @72ish with the Brain"
A Resuscitation Recession...
My outlook on this recession is seemingly overly optimistic...however, along with continued business as usual,albeit possibly reduced; the bail-outs, consolidations, failures, and new opportunities created by this crisis seem likely to provide plethora of projects for people involved in supporting the execution of these types of activities...which is for all practical purposes all activities...so, as long as your job is not the actual activity but rather a role sustaining the activity's likeliness to exist, your role should at least be easily transportable if all local activity planning should cease...
IT services, applications ... etc should do fine...
obviously if you specialize in some support role for the financial industry - you should be able able to find work somewhere -- facilities, security, human resources, IT ... etc.. anything not financial...
there is so much work to do in this country that - well - it's just time to get out from behind the desk and get to it - roads, bridges... yeah yeah samo samo - well, let's not forget all the ingenious ways people figure out how to start new industries based on the needs of the resident zeitgeist in order to avoid having to go out to work on roads and bridges... I would expect huge developments to expand efficiency, sustainability, and re-usability, based components for a more conservation minded consumer or business...intra-city railway projects, bio-diversified farming sprees, combined technology-center power/cooling/desalination plants, ...etc this could eventually affect the new construction markets which are traditionally insulated from rapid innovation's economic impact on aging structures....so if a rapid enough transformation occurs in building materials and methods ... it could be along long long long time before a lot of the greatly depreciated real estate in this country seems like a better bargain at a break-even or better prices, than better newer digs somewhere else, and if enough innovation ensues, new real estate right next door...
recession project example which drives IT services and sales...
once upon a time:
Company A bought application system X because X does M great
Company B bought application system Y because Y does L the way B likes it done
then one day along came a salesperson:
The salesperson told Company A the latest rectifimaximus O does M better faster stronger cheaper than X
The salesperson told Company B the latest rectifimaximus O does L that way and more than Y for less
well being the fiscally irresponsible self-bonus giving financial industry executives they were at Companies A and B:
Companies A and B regretfully declined to upgrade while there was still time to save them from the credit crisis by forcing them to create a real budget with real money for a real upgrade that earns and saves real dollars every second of every day...
now there's no money left for executives to plunder but various account holders think they have money and some retained their ability to work - so these accounts at least still have some value as customer assets:
Companies A and B are bought for their forward intrinsic value
The buying company - being run by those who are still running and who are forward thinking ... hmmmm:
scratching their heads .. realizes the best way to merge this to one application system is to ahem - upgrade to O and migrate X's M to O and Y's L to O
case closed
IT services, applications ... etc should do fine...
obviously if you specialize in some support role for the financial industry - you should be able able to find work somewhere -- facilities, security, human resources, IT ... etc.. anything not financial...
there is so much work to do in this country that - well - it's just time to get out from behind the desk and get to it - roads, bridges... yeah yeah samo samo - well, let's not forget all the ingenious ways people figure out how to start new industries based on the needs of the resident zeitgeist in order to avoid having to go out to work on roads and bridges... I would expect huge developments to expand efficiency, sustainability, and re-usability, based components for a more conservation minded consumer or business...intra-city railway projects, bio-diversified farming sprees, combined technology-center power/cooling/desalination plants, ...etc this could eventually affect the new construction markets which are traditionally insulated from rapid innovation's economic impact on aging structures....so if a rapid enough transformation occurs in building materials and methods ... it could be along long long long time before a lot of the greatly depreciated real estate in this country seems like a better bargain at a break-even or better prices, than better newer digs somewhere else, and if enough innovation ensues, new real estate right next door...
recession project example which drives IT services and sales...
once upon a time:
Company A bought application system X because X does M great
Company B bought application system Y because Y does L the way B likes it done
then one day along came a salesperson:
The salesperson told Company A the latest rectifimaximus O does M better faster stronger cheaper than X
The salesperson told Company B the latest rectifimaximus O does L that way and more than Y for less
well being the fiscally irresponsible self-bonus giving financial industry executives they were at Companies A and B:
Companies A and B regretfully declined to upgrade while there was still time to save them from the credit crisis by forcing them to create a real budget with real money for a real upgrade that earns and saves real dollars every second of every day...
now there's no money left for executives to plunder but various account holders think they have money and some retained their ability to work - so these accounts at least still have some value as customer assets:
Companies A and B are bought for their forward intrinsic value
The buying company - being run by those who are still running and who are forward thinking ... hmmmm:
scratching their heads .. realizes the best way to merge this to one application system is to ahem - upgrade to O and migrate X's M to O and Y's L to O
case closed
Sunday, October 12, 2008
HideNerHare...Eternal Optimist...Everywhere
AAPL
FRO
PBR
BP
COP
BAC
ORCL
GE
RDSA
COP
XOM
CVX
GOOG
AgOOpple Sandwhich - Innovation Meets Big Oil's = Sun-Enhanced Wind-Pump'n Mechanico-Electric Thermo-Conservative Bio-Diesel Economies and "Cyano-Cannabis Algae Farms" for everyone
I'm hiding here ... where the cash is ... where the innovation is ... where World problems will find solutions creating new purified flows of capital by condensing the freshly evaporated capital, thought, and industries liquidity of late ...
nibblers
BOOM
RIO
MOS
FRO
PBR
BP
COP
BAC
ORCL
GE
RDSA
COP
XOM
CVX
GOOG
AgOOpple Sandwhich - Innovation Meets Big Oil's = Sun-Enhanced Wind-Pump'n Mechanico-Electric Thermo-Conservative Bio-Diesel Economies and "Cyano-Cannabis Algae Farms" for everyone
I'm hiding here ... where the cash is ... where the innovation is ... where World problems will find solutions creating new purified flows of capital by condensing the freshly evaporated capital, thought, and industries liquidity of late ...
nibblers
BOOM
RIO
MOS
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
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