What Might be Groovy @ MacWorld...

Of course the Fox-Apple rental service over iTunes...I expect there will be quite a few other major content players wanting a seed of this apple tree...

Apple TV version 2 --> I hope sooner than later...

Some Nifty iPhone Advancement - like 3G, GPS, or Both! - very doubtful - updates will probably be through software enhancements providing new services and features

A New Ultra Portable Line of Notebooks with OLED screen and flash HDD

Some dick tracy video watch with bluetooth hub/repeater --> yeah right...!

Giant touchpad PC to replace notepads all over the house and to prepare us for having a computer on our arm or thigh all the time --> Future ArmPods and ThighPods...

Updates to Old MacBook and MacBook Pro to include options for flash HDD and LED screen technology..

If Intel throws in new 45nm core mobil computing chips for all the new/old lines that's a real boon...badabam...even if they only do some of this stuff --> these things are just the tip of what berg is icing our way with this company...

INTC
AAPL
NVDA

You can't join em...buy em...

You know - now that I look at all the tendrals into technology markets potentially about to take off for this company - I think I have to say the prospects for apples near term growth seem to be even stronger from here than they did when I first started following apple trading at a split-adjusted price of 15...

2007 12-28 Pre-Annual Performance Chart....

The continued profit taking among secondary trader control while the big dogs are on vacation together with FCEL's Connecticut deal being reduced seems to eliminate the possibility of ending the year up over 100%...

Now You Can Come Right Out...

& BLAME CANADA...
...and I WILL

My long time favoritism toward the Canadian Oil & Gas Trusts has once again been shifted out of phase with reality --> I hate to see a good one like this turn bad again - but - and - since - this area has been repeatedly good from time to time sometimes and definitely over all pretty much always in the long run --> a return again to these is highly likely sometime in 2008 if they settle into their next low levels down...or even get clearly valued and go up --> The Key is that it seems No One really knows the true value of these companies...but for long periods the huge dividends keep everyone quiet...Well their screaming now, and I wanted to go with winners like Apple and PBR...etc

Canadian trust holders (that was me...sorry if it was you too - but hol dem and they will continue to pay...) got hammered in the later months of 2007...
...What seemed like what was going to turn into a dreamin screamin cash machine of take overs wound out waiting everyone up like unwanted lay overs instead...only leading to flight delays and over-all flight experiences well below expectations...yes that is what the Canadian take overs started to seem like...so they will continue to go on consolidating and optimizing...

[These Canadian trusts will most Likely Do Fine...I just perceived a better prospect somewhere else and ran for it --> not from these [CNE PGH PVX PWE AAV] <-- some day I may return to these for income-aspect power --> right now I traded them for growth-aspect power --> now there needs to be a powerful aspect of growth or much painful suffering will lull along for half a year...With No Income...!...Ouch...!!!

...not to say the Canadian Trusts are done or anything like that - they continue to pay hefty dividends, have been forced by politicians to improve efficiencies and create sustainable operating methodologies, and are near maximum technically sustainable lows...wherein lies the problem - they only appear to be Near their technically sustainable maximum lows baring unpredictable adverse factors which could eventually under ride even these theoretically calculated lows...so what I'd Do -

Well...I ate em....

since the Canadians were already down (some less than 12 months dividends worth- others more) and the Canadian charts are looking bad - I rotated out and am now officially Blaming Canada for not making my target of 100% gains for comp portfolio for the year...

Oh Yeah, and also especially blaming certain pump-n-dump properties in US, Alaska, and South America...XSNX AKYI FXPE PSEG --> Never Buy Stocks that look like these ones or you too will be sorry you did... as am I...

Stay tuned in for the exciting blame levied against China for 2008 year end market crashes...or something else not like that...

So it's over now...

or... "it's only just begun",

That deepens whenever you look at it...

I hope everyone bought all the stocks that made people a lot of money in 2007 and NOT, "I Repeat Myself When Under Stress", NOT, stocks that caused a lot of losses. I'm guessing here again, but,.... You see, even though these loser stocks may seem like a good bargain if they belong to fantastic companies that just happen to be out of favor for all the wrong reasons...which happens all the time and you just have to cut and run...if you accidentally got in before you found out there was no favor to be found...

No, the bargains may not bounce after the new year unless there is a specific kicker to give a boost - everyone who lost their shirt just sold and put tax losses on their books - federally baring them from buying back for 30 days or something like that...this effect will put a bearish dimple in the technical interpretation of the chart pattern following the new year effect which acts like a tag for negative market sentiment - much the same way as a stock split announcement acts like a tag for positive market sentiment when actually there is nothing different at all outside of the affective stock split-price relative terms used to describe the same underlying things...

Conversely I would surmise that people will buy the 2007 stocks that made them money back again in 2008. Especially, fund managers and those who sold in the last few days of the year. This end of year profit taking seems like it would be against the highest percentage winners of the year since selling them can help balance a portfolio with very little trading activity needed - ie. high profit-margin assets - this has a double whammy n'effect - the light share volume needed to raise money (if that's what's needed) doesn't signal bearish indicators to the market starting a crescendo of selling against the underlying or other stocks...which may also be held by a fund...a fund may be trying to make re-balance their allocations, make minor adjustments to their gains/losses for the year, or shift funds/assets to ready them for the 1st trading session of the new year...etc...therefore they might try to raise capital at this point in the year by light selling in their highest profit margin assets...and trying not to start a selling crescendo...

so wondering how apple can sell off all day with no price movement either way....like it did all day today - this probably means the BIGGEST holders are still holding most of their stuff and didn't want their selling to affect their own portfolio holdings...

truly, I have No idea...But...Let's just hope they aren't waiting to take profits right away in the first of the new year...I think appl looks good to 212 with ease even if a pull back is eminent - this is because it's within 5% of the 203.3 boundary which has been technically met with force +-5% at least twice...



Possible GOOD NEWS - PEOPLE MAY WANT TO BUY THESE GOOD STOCKS BACK AS SOON AS THEY CAN -"After New Year BEGINS" - other wise they won't make money in 2008 too :)

2008 Holdings by Descending Portfolio Percentage...

"Complete Portfolio"
AAPL
FCEL
FRO
BOOM
GOOG
AMSC
SFL
PBR
COP
RDS.A
CREE
UTX
TNP
HOLX
NVDA
FSLR
AVAV
LDK
WFR
RTP
DOCKF
POT
SPWR
SGR
MDR
AUY
FCX
PFCE
SATC
MCEL
DSTI
ETLY

Last trade of 2008:
HOLX

Russia Happy...Iran Happy...Al Qaeda-->Not SO Happy...!!!

Russia can provide oil and nuclear services to the region..

Iran can have electricity and clout..but watch out --> there will be nuclear waste to deal with, and we may have to trust the Russians to make sure it doesn't fall into the wrong hands...

Al Qaeda in Iraq will no longer have easy access to recruitment opportunities, weaponry, trade routes, or advisers...

Now:
Russia can regulate the energy flows for the region...
US can use bases in Iraq to regulate the security of the region's assets and their interconnections...
Iran can regulate the psycho-social entities and their interconnections...

of course these should be areas of focus and not neglect other areas for each

Eagle Century and Energy...

Consumers have spent $7 trillion more on energy the first 7 years of this Eagle century than were spent in the last seven years of the previous Panther century.

Now let's just look at this for a moment - is this correct and what we should expect...or is something wrong?

Answer is...Yes
Yes - this is the way it should be..

Just look at the caloric consumption rate per kilogram body weight of even the smallest of birds...so, if we're going to get this Eagle off the ground it's gonna take a lot of inputs and conservations working together and in very clean manners - Eagles fly better clean...

Superacious Holiday Cheer for ALL...!!!

{
With the Zeal of fleeing Veal...
I wish you this year with seasoned cheer...
The very best of 2007 times of what's left before the gate to 08-->

Merry Christmas - Your friends are truly thinking of Yutew...
}
so watch out...

Year Enders Becoming New Year Beginders...

thought I'd better...BEGIttiniNDEepoRSuffer

AAPL AMSC AUY AVAV
BOOM
COP CREE
DOCKF
ETLY
FCEL FCX FRO FSLR
GOOG
IVN
LMC
MCEL MDR
NVDA
PBR PFCE PGH POT
RDS.A RTP
SATC SFL SGR SPWR
TNP
UTX


A F P & S seem to be the most popular alphabet characters going into the new year, however P might fall behind. I am expecting a temptation to sell a P on Monday, the last trading day of the year...

F-PoP...& It Won't Stop...

FCEL

Gets a nice day today - the bears tugged it down all day only to ultimately be defeated in the end --> and even up on 729,564 shares in after after hours trading

FCEL formed a long lower shadow (a mallet) - indicates that sellers controlled all day but were defeated in later trading

So, if this info is put together with previous days activity it appears the stage is set for an island reversal - so F-Pop...or it'll flip flop and then force stop...till the crops mopped and your jaw drops....

FCEL should not linger long @ lower levels here --> favor is in favor of this favorite...truly a remarkable combination of favoritisms...usually the favored stocks are not flavored for predominate market taste..the ones with favor flavor are

Good News Gone Bad...Ouwie...!!!

FCEL had some great bad-news this morning. This has created a huge buying opportunity.
1. nothing has really changed significantly in terms of FCEL's rapid growth rate
2. the 16.2 MW order has increased the backlog by 50%, so - if new orders come in from other sources soon, it will have been as if the Connecticut 16.2MW deal was bigger anyway - after all - it's in backlog behind 25MW's already
3. the 16.2 deal is not finalized until Jan 9th - Connecticut may add more projects by Jan 9th
4. FCEL was just overly crushed and could bounce back to 11.08 from technical market forces dampening
5. if there's a lot of strength right away there could be an easy bounce to 12.10
6. Most Importantly - FCEL should still be able to achieve the "up-to-20% cost reduction in their supply chain via leverage gained from the large scale requirements of the 25+MW backlog - which is not done growing :) - truly these expected cost reductions are a portion of the short term growth which is priced into the stock. "Bear" in mind here, the 9 MW plant will be the largest fuel cell installation in the world...
7. This company keeps good company...ie Board members, DOE, ...x... etc
8. Regardless of how many alternative energy sources are used to power our future, there will always be gases to deal with and special requirements that only fuel cells offer a cost effective avenue for such efforts given current technology streams

Expect Rapid Technology Development in this Eagle Century...

I expect massive "TechInjection" all over the world as old style systems are updated to all new relpacements instead of upgrades. Land based vehicles have to be redesigned to resist high energy shaped charge attacks as well as fit new engine and drive systems becoming available. Ships and planes and everything else is the same way right now. Retrofits and reuse are becoming less and less practical as fundamental infrastucture technologies are undergoing the most rapid and dramatic component architecture and ancillary system advancements ever seen in the history of humankind's known industrialization.

This might be good for a lot of companies. Some specific areas of interest relatd to this: Love BAESF because - they have the biggest Rail Gun in town...
BAESF - deadly shit
AMSC - new shit
FCEL - new shit
A0N4P4 - shit power & propulsion - TOGNUM on German DAX
BOOM - little shit
UTX - big shit
AVAV - unmanned ariel shit
MDR - nuclear components for massively powered shit

F is still for Friday...

So the market forces have driven FCEL up and a new range may form..

this is cool since back in September I decided to publish the results of my experimental future boundary guesser:

http://noonesapproval.blogspot.com/2007/09/f-is-for-friday.html

Today the easy-side boundary of the new range was met with force and FCEL traded up to and just above the new lower bound for approximately 30 minutes --> only to fall off 20 cents r so.

Remember - 13.12 is still a resistance at this point


{
Saturday, September 08, 2007
F is for Friday.....

and FCEL - Fuel Cell Energy Corp

I'm trying out a new calculation here...so here it goes

My estimate for FCEL's future target range is 13.12-15.68

http://www.vmsdigital.com/MyFiles_Detail.aspx?mediaId=197270&onum=04ACC7C0-9B0D-4472-A447-CF65631B0147

disclosure:
I hold FCEL in one or more portfolios and am prone to active trading.

Posted by ionflare at 1:07 AM

Labels: Fuel Cell Energy
}

Rotation of the day...

sells: ESLR

Buy Bites: AUY ACH

Stocks Wants Likes to Get:
LIHR
ABX
GOLD

FRO Watch...

Waiting for the Ship to come in...

looking to buy at the following levels:

45.13 20%
41.4 30%
37.67 50%


If it goes below 33.94 then:
Double Down Dare Ya...

FRO Out!

Red Hot Alert...

Do You Feel Lusky...?

LMC
IVN

these may give a Super POP soon...

or Not...

Rotational Awareness...

Todays Buys & Sells:

Sells: Some but not all--> FRO DSTI & TEX

BUYS: NAT PBR RIG RTP FCX ESLR FSLR SPWR GOOG SGR MDR CPL

A Tirany of Economic Yrony...

Goldman Sachs made $11 billion hedging against credit-crunch fodder-backed securities and other mortgage related "doomvestments". So, today while clever "GoldenBears" are sheering off their hedge of profits in one Sachs department, another is busy with analysts scurrying around trying to find the best way to put the billions back to work.

Some money is going into stock equities and some of 11 billion is a lot!!

So no wonder today's headlines read:

"Goldman Sachs is stirring fears over credit crunch"

of course they are - they just beat it and now they have to invest their profits - only it's not 100% decided as to where the monies will go and Sachs needs time to settle it and move it into new positions....they probably hope the market will stall here - so find what you like and and you know what to do...

a listener has pointed out a cool website - it shows where the mutual fund managers are putting their money - remember --> all recoveries are asymmetrical to their decline in terms of who goes back up and how far how fast.....

http://thebuylist.com/

Snapping Up Apple...

I still like to bite on the Apple here there and everywhere...

AAPL's new eventual price target ...is...

269.62

There will probably be a a split announced sometime in 2008 and it will probably be sooner than later...

There will probably be a lot of sales in current product lines...

There will probably be some global sales growth...

There will probably be some new HOT products launched early in 2008...

Investors will probably continue to benefit in the long term from buying Apple stock...

FedMech: Synergistic Multi-prong Aproach to Alter Output of Complex Adaptive Economic Systems

The Fed's multi-pronged approach to the credit crunch may be just what a chaotic economic system truly needs...

The coordination among Central Banks and their global counterparts will most likely achieve unprecedented levels of cooperative economic repair influences given the utilization of all the latest technologies and information infrastructures...

There has also been tremendous accomplishments in the application of non-linear approaches to solving all types of highly interconnected centers of crisis formation, so there are most likely aspects of these types of strategies being employed today all over the world while actively rectifying this credit cruncher...

I would also like to note that this trying time is also providing an excellent opportunity to gather data for predictive volatility analysis providing perspectives necessary for scaling our transaction processing infrastructures to handle future market conditions...not to mention the psychosocial implications...

The Bottom Dollar...~

It would seem that if the US dollar is showing signs of having bottomed - and even turned around ... then foreign investors who have been waiting for this indication will move their money into US markets.

We could see some rises in some stocks from this effect...

My best guess is that if I wait to see how it turns out, then I'll know if my guess here is correct.

I guess that it might very well be...correct that is...

Chipping off a Chunk...

is not what you think...

I mean...to chip off a chunk a shares from the float...snatch em up

like a chipmunk...small chips every now and then..

10 shares here 25 shares there .. here a share there a share everywhere a share to snare...

LUKOY
PBR
SHI
CPL
RIO
WFR

these are not necessarily my top picks at the moment - just ones I'd like to have the "Opportunity" - so to speak - to snare some shares....

If you want the definitive "buy me now" stock even if it's just 10 shares...then your talking about UTX @ 77ish

Patterns Still Holding...

Here comes the scary part again..

S'yuh'avtuh AsKyerSuf...

Didyer portfolio make a new high even though the overall market did not..?
If yes --> pattern yursuf on the back for at least still having hope that the portfolio will now make another successively higher low...

Has this happened to a greater degree following each successive short term sell-off..?
If yes --> pattern yursuf on the back for proper reversification technique, and the hope that this will once more occur upon recovery from this current sell-off...

So, 3 times is a charm...if portfolios are making successively higher highs followed by higher lows on each correction, then market pressure has been compressed and is being released through a smaller stock universe...in other words major amounts of money are coming out of various stock market sectors, and when it comes back into the markets it is going back in unevenly - putting more upward pressure on the favored sectors during rallies than that of the downward force during the sell-offs/This phenomena could continue to drive certain stocks higher while the market dozenother southern-sidewinder on us...

Scraping Up Cream Off the Bottom...?

Hmmmm.... Mmmmm.....

Usually you have to rise to the top to scrape the cream...uh-yeah -> Yudeno this if yu'ur from Arkansas

today.. cream like-->

most of your favorite stocks....

<--is like...

on the bottom...

uh-yeah .. the bottom of the top -->

SCRAPE CREAM AT YOUR OWN RISK

Are You Reversified...?

Time for strategic year end reversification...

You might ask ...
Why should I reversify?

One might reply...
Did you over try?

Cry

reversification --> rectification of portfolio over-diversification

When How...?
up to Dec 31st --- sell average loser stocks & redirect funds to a few proven winners

The Boy Who Cried Fuel Cell...

FCEL

a rising but distant star - the most misunderstood fuel cell company on the planet...

I just want to focus on 1 highlight of this quarter's results...

"Research and development contract revenue was $5.5 million, up from $2.5
million in the 2006 fourth quarter resulting from increased activity on the
Company's multi-MW coal based solid oxide contract with the U.S. Department of
Energy." --> excerpt from this quarter's FCEL results and accomplishments statement.

why is this important - what does this statement mean?

This is important because America has a lot of coal, and this project is improving a means by which coal is converted to electricity without combustion. Current DFC plants run at 47% efficiency - 80% utilizing CHP systems.

This statement likely means that research on coal based solid oxide Direct Fuel Cell technology is going well, and the DOE increased the budget to expedite completion of the remaining trial phases. (a little history here - FCEL's DFC system met all the validating criteria put forth by the DOE 6 months ahead of schedule in live-function trials.

FCEL remains prone to volatility and profitable entry points should continue to emerge in the likely and frequent future price swings as the investor market awareness grows amid the profit-chopper trading activity.

So many ,,,things to do...not enough...you know what...

RTP & IVN may be getting close to finalizing agreement with Mongolian Government to start mining operations... RTP seems to be hinting around that they will be the World's largest copper producer. RTP turned down $141 Billion Bid from BHP --> I think they know something good...


SHI & MCD --> have agreements in place to open mcDonalds eateries at any of SHI's 30K+ Chinese gas stations...SHI is off its high & could be a good long play here

FSLR, SPWR, CSIQ, WFR, ESLR JASO, LDK, --> Solar plays,,,please come down to earth DSTI is spec special here...

PBR LUKOY RDS.A COP - some fern earl cumpknees - they will go well

BOOM ACH AMSC AVAV FCEL --> Crazy Growth Stories here - very risky spec here

From Russia with Love...

Lukoil - Sounds like something you getinto or something ...

it's not -->

It's a HUGE Big Earl Cumpny...

A Rusky one at that...

Russia has plenty of oil and related economies...who better to pick up where they left off in Iraq than these heavily prepared Russian "Oilstranaughts"...

Apparently, Lukoil has numerous major ongoing projects in IRAQ which range the entire gamut of activities in the fields of geological assessments, industry planning, field exploration, full scale production, all levels distribution, and complete oil services delivery. These current and future projects may be worth some possible extra billions and Lukoil is well positioned to remain a key player in IRAQ for quite some time. The key is that they are the fastest route to fruition for extracting Oil from Iraq - they already had deals with Sodom Insane, Iraq's former dicktator, and everything required for a brand new oil economy infrastructure just happens to be conveniently nearby ~ where those commis put it.!..Oil & Gas Universities to train Iraqi Industry professionals....equipment and distribution together with complete industry service delivery can be met easily as a simple extension of territory for Lukoil...Welcome to the Big League Luky Lukester...

this truly is a decade long moment to rrememb... ... brings tears to the eyes... err

LUKOY

Tremedous Temptations...

Once Upon A Time...

There was a trust whose product was Black Gold,

and in the land a tax man ruled 'til their Gold was sure to fold...

So, the value of their gold all told has traditionally been that of what's been sold...

But now with this tax man lining his eyes with gold scrapings of the pie, a new value structure may emerge based on what reserves have been discovered yet still lie in the ground cold...oceans of "Black Sky"

I am guessing here - but with a %14 dividend, very low risk growth potential at this price level, and regular monthly dividend payout schedule - I would have to call Canada's Provident Energy Trust a Buy now that it is trading around $10..

PVX (not to confuse ..hehe.. the opposite of this stock is DSTI and may be a HUGE WINNER in the Phenomenal Growth Department)

Thinking of buying? Consider:
1. consider buying half your shares at first and the other half after you lose some
2. use a broker that offers dividend reinvestment free for any stock - Etrade etc...
3. Blame Canada when you lose money...!

PVX LM ~=~ 10.51

TankerMinder...

FRO --> best Play to benefit from short term tripling of VeryLargeCrudeCarrier spot market rates since most of their fleet operates on the spot market and not on longer term charter contracts. FRO is a great PurePlay on VLCC's ... & the LongHaul OIL transport market...top line...

FRO usually does a lot of sinking and swimming so if you are thinking of floating some dough...wait for the FROat to sink first so you can float your dough up with the ship...easier said than done - the opposite of course is sinking your dough into FROat and watching it sink with the ship - HINT: FRO always --> drops like a rock from time to time --> :-) usually following the X-Dividend date = the day the stock price is discounted it's dividend payout --> with FRO there tends to be a 2-3x dividend amount sell-off effect following each div X date.

SFL TNP --> WoW diversified high margin fluids is the name of the game here --> if IT's nasty-thick slick-n-slimy and lubes-n-burns, but could still bubble in a tub, these players have a specialized tanker just for IT...

GMR --> Fleet is all AfraMax & SuezMAx tankers - slight smoothing in short term stability seems trending toward a breakout with uncertain PopUp potential

VLCCF --> mostly longer term contracts on it's VLCC vessels - expect steady variability with moderate fluctuation

NAT --> Fleet is all SuezMAx tankers --> therefore will not see spot rates as high as those for VLCC's, but many vessels are on the spot market...

Note: many long term charters have spot rate factors built in so even charter rates can be variable....

Rates are high now...