S'wanna No - A Fleeting Thought?

Is Not S'wanna...

Not S'wannas, a pastime not s'often used to pass the time...

Literally translated:
Not Surprisingly, What's you wanted s'not happening...

so what is happening?

Huge bubbles of unaffordable innovation R&D have been funded globally with borrowed monies, and now the world's conglomerates are buying it up with the help of their governments - consider this a race to gobble .. everything seemingly valuable later for any reason you can imagine - monetary giant's would like to take a bite while the risks of getting hurt in the process are low - so now is a time of economic battles and skirmishes reaching epic proportions...

what are the ramifications of all this...

There is so much work, some of which can't even be started in less than years and years...upcoming recessionary work environments should be characterized by service professionals facilitating all the reorganizations required to process business and government entity-conversions/adjustments within the new socio-economic climate, steadfast producer-workers building and renewing infrastructures to sustain modern civilized activities, scientific innovators and educators creating new solutions to solve fundamental challenges facing the human race worldwide, and every other ancillary feeding industry to any involved or interconnected aforementioned animate/inanimate entity(s). Anyone who can find niche-parity somewhere within any of these realms will do well by contributing via participation.

Reality for Real, it's for real !!!

1. 1st nothing is real
2. everything seems real enough that 1 is completely irrelevant
3. no matter how large a city road is expanded, the traffic expands to fill it up
4. a giant's sleeping baby continues growing all the time
5. fewer new automobile expenditures will surprisingly free up a lot of capital for smaller high tech devices to satisfy peoples delight in highly innovative toys
6. hd tv will roll in a huge amount of spending on the digital living room at a time when world tv set prices are clamoring toward all time lows
7. a single database platform will be able to serve all applications
8. grid computing will lead to software and hardware systems which leave the OSI model to obsolescence
9. quantum computing will allow compute-space to become larger than the universe it is computing within
10. good things that are made to last tend to attract and keep customers with lasting taste for good things

Is...

Not...

GreenSpan Wrong? ... No...

he couldn't be wrong - let's see..

he lowered rates so everyone could afford to buy expensive things in the interest rate environment he created

then he set the interest rate environment to expire before the buyers could accelerate beyond their economic escape velocity (ex. in real -estate; getting beyond momentum value swings and into real solid equity growth from time/population/wage growth) , so they were doomed to crash if they didn't have a bailout plan or a lucky parachute under the seat...

then he failed to recommend the long-term interest rate problem be corrected before everyone crashed

and to this day - the Feds still have not lowered long-term interest rates to help anyone out...I guess we'll have to wait until after the election to get lower long-term borrowing rates

PBR has bitten badly..

moving PBR monies to FRO

this will probably produce a bottom itself alone...couldn't take the Brazilian brand of risk anymore...

a little history:
PBR does great... finds tons of oil, biggest find in decades - develops world's largest renewable diesel production and distribution network

then, borrows tons to build fancy deep water rigs - then the workers strike and want a cut, then the govt wants to cut in and profit share with Brazil, then oil prices drop, now credit markets are dry and PBR can't issue bonds or raise capital from loans to develop their oil finds which need very high prices to be profitable in the first place...

so when I say MISTAKE - I mean - "NOT SELLING PBR @72ish with the Brain"

A Resuscitation Recession...

My outlook on this recession is seemingly overly optimistic...however, along with continued business as usual,albeit possibly reduced; the bail-outs, consolidations, failures, and new opportunities created by this crisis seem likely to provide plethora of projects for people involved in supporting the execution of these types of activities...which is for all practical purposes all activities...so, as long as your job is not the actual activity but rather a role sustaining the activity's likeliness to exist, your role should at least be easily transportable if all local activity planning should cease...

IT services, applications ... etc should do fine...

obviously if you specialize in some support role for the financial industry - you should be able able to find work somewhere -- facilities, security, human resources, IT ... etc.. anything not financial...

there is so much work to do in this country that - well - it's just time to get out from behind the desk and get to it - roads, bridges... yeah yeah samo samo - well, let's not forget all the ingenious ways people figure out how to start new industries based on the needs of the resident zeitgeist in order to avoid having to go out to work on roads and bridges... I would expect huge developments to expand efficiency, sustainability, and re-usability, based components for a more conservation minded consumer or business...intra-city railway projects, bio-diversified farming sprees, combined technology-center power/cooling/desalination plants, ...etc this could eventually affect the new construction markets which are traditionally insulated from rapid innovation's economic impact on aging structures....so if a rapid enough transformation occurs in building materials and methods ... it could be along long long long time before a lot of the greatly depreciated real estate in this country seems like a better bargain at a break-even or better prices, than better newer digs somewhere else, and if enough innovation ensues, new real estate right next door...

recession project example which drives IT services and sales...
once upon a time:
Company A bought application system X because X does M great
Company B bought application system Y because Y does L the way B likes it done

then one day along came a salesperson:
The salesperson told Company A the latest rectifimaximus O does M better faster stronger cheaper than X
The salesperson told Company B the latest rectifimaximus O does L that way and more than Y for less

well being the fiscally irresponsible self-bonus giving financial industry executives they were at Companies A and B:
Companies A and B regretfully declined to upgrade while there was still time to save them from the credit crisis by forcing them to create a real budget with real money for a real upgrade that earns and saves real dollars every second of every day...

now there's no money left for executives to plunder but various account holders think they have money and some retained their ability to work - so these accounts at least still have some value as customer assets:
Companies A and B are bought for their forward intrinsic value

The buying company - being run by those who are still running and who are forward thinking ... hmmmm:
scratching their heads .. realizes the best way to merge this to one application system is to ahem - upgrade to O and migrate X's M to O and Y's L to O

case closed

HideNerHare...Eternal Optimist...Everywhere

AAPL
FRO
PBR
BP
COP
BAC
ORCL
GE
RDSA
COP
XOM
CVX
GOOG

AgOOpple Sandwhich - Innovation Meets Big Oil's = Sun-Enhanced Wind-Pump'n Mechanico-Electric Thermo-Conservative Bio-Diesel Economies and "Cyano-Cannabis Algae Farms" for everyone

I'm hiding here ... where the cash is ... where the innovation is ... where World problems will find solutions creating new purified flows of capital by condensing the freshly evaporated capital, thought, and industries liquidity of late ...

nibblers
BOOM
RIO
MOS

Awe Shucks...

loss-out of BAC, T, and GE again...

watch out for that shoe ... drop

Ideas In Motion...

When we experience new ideas – it’s usually because we’re in the rift of those ahead of us in thought!

Why I Ask...

BAC or WFC - because all the smaller banks are loosing customers who fear their collapse - these customers should flee to large banks like Bank of America and Wells Fargo - where BAC has the larger dividend right now with a CEO who says he need not cut while WFC just raised theirs...!

GE - current and future energy, health as well as pretty much everything else is intertwined with this magic company, and it is yielding over 4% right now - good time to start dripping into this one...

BP - integrated global oil with an eye to the future for diverse energy portfolios and a yield over 5%

RDSA - integrated global oil with an eye to the future for diverse energy portfolios and a yield over 4.5%

FRO - safest and most versatile transportation of required petroleum crudes - the fundamental ingredient for just about everything modern you can imagine + huge yields which vary wildly according to tanker rates and bookings

T - benefiting from a huge influx of eager new customers who want to be part of the iPhone - these are most likely going to prove to be good customers - this flock is characteristic of positive enthusiasm toward accepting/using advanced services which are being/planned-to-be delivered over AT&T networks to iPhone users + dividend yield over 5%

AAPL - this growth stock has only just begun and is a good technology stock too


The Risky Side of Life:
PBR - risk has gotten a lot higher here as the Brazilian Govt. is considering curtailing PBR's involvement in the new oil finds to strictly service roles - they will still make mucho dinero and are trading below fair value for their current expected performance even barring the unexplored areas of the fields

SQM RIO IPI POT MON - commodities got these, down but they'll come back another day

FCEL AVAV AMSC ESLR NTDOY - remain in the running to be great someday .. holding steadfast here still seems likely to pay

ABB BOOM XTO SSL EMN BCKBF - not much more pain left to suffer here either ... right...

It appears to be all uphill from here

Slowing Tankers...

FRO has classic Head & Shoulders with a broken neckline - but ships are slowing - rates are climbing...

Charles' hair tossed at sea has unexpectedly slowed Frontline's tankers 3.8% since July...

FYI: Pentagon Claims that tankers in the sky (with diamonds) are more important than survivability, airlift, and operational utility...

So it goes again as the stale news continues to proclaim - well you get the rest - or not...

PBR Workers on 5 Day Strike...

This is a gift to the loooong term investor...who's looking to roll funds into a solid winner...like anyone who hasn't dumped one product VMR or NVDA yet ... get real - get on it - get with the winners - FRO PBR AAPL OOPS WROng article...

PBR could begin sinking to its lowest point .... forever...or not

If the worker strike causes a ridiculous sell-off followed by the largely expected growth in output, we may never see a lower low again ... ever - we will probably never see 15 again on this stock, which is where it was the first time I bought it. This is a growing company that has so far to go before it tops off that we probably truly will never see these loooow prices again - forever...

or - we'll see em tomorrow and I'll be wearin my barrel...solid Arkansas Oak with real iron skillet strappins...

runnin for a haircut...or not

Take a Walk on the Wild Side

Ready Buys...

stock - my rating...

PBR - Better than Peanut Butter, Pabst blue Ribbon, & Protein Before RNA

BP - newest member to the team as of today...

T - need to get me suma dat...

BAC - gotta hav suma dis...

GE - every time I go there I wish I hadn't - will this time be different...? i don't know but at some point the dividend coupled with major upside future prospects will be too much to turn away here - that may be right about now...

note experiment: 10K invested in XOM over a period where div is invested came to over 2mil - same period without div the 10K came to 120K or so...

do not I repeat - do not - ignore the importance of dividend reinvestment for fairly large portion of your portfolio

a good strategy may be to sell growth on its momentum tops while moving into beaten down div plays to wait out the growth stock decline cycles...

right now I am trying this shifting from AAPL to FRO and back again - so far so good...oh yeah --> heavy weight is in AAPL right now of course - when the iPhone pops it off - some will need to be swung back into FRO which should be down by then as i am extremely late for a hair cut

Nuclear Frontier...Not Stale News...

Looks like 500 tons of Uranium ore was just removed from Iraq (hmmm this wouldn't have anything to do with US intentions over there - removal of 500 tons of uranium that would have been available to fuel Iran's enrichment programs once they took it from Iraq)

it seems to have gone to Canada...probably a good place to store it and process it while its still dusty so to speak

SGR reported better earnings based on Nuclear related projects...hmmm

I smell some nuclear reactions on the horizon...
submarines - rail cannon warships - land based reactors - eventually rail cannon launching of spacecraft and satellites - etc etc

GE SGR ? ? ?

Speculating Toward a Brighter Future...Silly Bottom...Dips are for Skids...

eventually the Skid will stick and the market can once again thrive on upticks

BAC:
Bank of America’s CEO said today he does not see a reason to cut the dividend or any reason to believe BAC would need to raise more capital ... This is tremendous if true – BAC currently has a yield of ~11% and upside of 100% growth once nurtured back to full health ... For a bank like BAC – its so seems time to buy - but beware - very scary territory and waiting for bottom conformations, missing the first 10-15% of the recovery, and getting in late may be the prudent way to play this

GE:
GE is working on waste to gasification technologies for the us
Japan already has 7 successful installations of another similar sort
These produce power by gasifying our garbage then gas to electricity

Basket Group: - common risks
MRK BMY BMR - people might stop getting ill
AGU MON POT MOS - people might stop eating
AVAV FCEL AMSC ESLR - people might stop innovating and defending their energy infrastructures
T WIN - people might stop communicating
AAPL GOOG NTDOY - people might stop thinking
CNX SSL EMN - people might stop making steel, using electricity, plastics, fuels, gases...etc
ENER SQM BOOM - people might not need to process and convert fuels
PBR COP RDSA XOM - people will stop needing oil, energy, or any kind of fuel
FRO ETP SE TRP- people will not need to transport fuels like oil and gas
IPI V AWK ERII - crazy ipo's - anything could happen
MA BAC GS - credit crisis could droll on forever or even spread to other credit markets
RIO FCX RTP IVN - demand destruction could drive most commodity prices way down
SGR FWLT MDR - infrastructure projects could slow in the face of slowing growth
GE HON SI UTX - large conglomerates could throw in the towel and great executives could abandon us for better lifestyles somewhere else

BCKBF PFCE IVAN HYGS - stay very away from here

Dispersification may ensue...!

Integrated Oils...
Be aware that we might experience a dip in integrated oil when oil prices fall

Which is asinine if you ask me …

The oil stocks first go up as oil prices rise – then fall sharply reporting that oil prices are too high for ultra-profitable operations – then when prices return to normal (where they were in the rally...really ) they fall because .. aawwee .. the price of oil is going down … awe

which is inevitable

FRO Fishin Season...Begins...

Finding the right crawfish hole is half the battle ... gettin'n while th'waters low, well, adds a'liltwistoit...

FRO buying more begins at 60ish ... that's today :) - buying all the way down from here on this one...sslloowwllyy (should see some good trading channels form here too)

swings and lunges could readily go anywhere from 40ish to 80ish with this wily one...

FRO:


FRO ~ |69.35 ~ 86.94 ~ 133.7| - future tough spots ... so to speak

Dow nThere...

Down Down Down Down Down

Downbie Downbie

DOW

DOW does look like it could DIP to ~ 10,846 before scraping its bottom...

I guess we'll have to wait and see

Is It Safe...

What makes an iPhone great ...

it doesn't have as many features as many other devices on the market - in fact it's components are often less advanced than competitor's... ex shaky camera - no volume speaker phone - no 3g speeds - etc ..

none of that matters - what people needed was exactly the platform the iPhone provides - the iPhone is a PLATFORM from which to experience applications and content - Experience is the Key - what the phone industry failed to do was to listen for customer's experience needs ... customers need a mobile communication platform that can provide all the familiar applications in a way that makes sense no matter how you look at it - examples --> form factors that don't change drastically every 5 seconds so that a lot of sub components and accessories will be relevant to supply chains and repair enthusiasts for many years to come as people mis match parts accross generations and apple leverages dyes and components in manufacturing and refurbishment activities ... so yeah - long runs, multiple mostly partial overlapping form factor device generations...a subtle shape shifter over the years, where the interfaces are durable and don't wear out easily, hosting a real computer OS so that actual development can be done and consistencies from generation to generation can be maintained and will make sense, a great distribution system so that equipment and parts are always available when and where needed, a place to go to get repairs made easily with a straightforward consistent style, easy and natural interface to existing computer systems and applications, etc etc

what they will deliver with the new 3g iPhone:
-more advanced component technologies
-some new features
-many new applications
-opening of the currently-safe portion of the OS (maybe more will open later)
-offerings in more locations - expanded distribution
-etc

what they have yet to do :
-allow multiple form factors to share one account - a dancing phone, a work phone, a camping phone .. etc - where you can login and out of them whenever you want without changing any chips - allowing users to buy chip sets or combine login in with bio-metrics to do away with the need for chips altogether :-: somehow they will eventually solve this problem and teach the phone companies that like sunglasses - each person would really like to have a backup in their briefcase or a different style for a different occasion... etc
-send its screen to other devices for larger temporary display - like the car nav or a "Blank" - (blank)
-integrated iGlasses, iWatch, iNav, and for when your ready to go...the iWill...
-etc

Yes

Apple is safe --> even if the iPhone was all they had...! and it's not even close to what they'll turn out to have when this is all said and done...

Belly basket ...

2008 6-17 (missing ~1/2 trivia = ~6K/day)


2008 7-3 (continued missing trivia ~ 4K/day)


thinking of going for a blast of frood flavors...looking for more seed and fertilizer opportunities
POT
AGU
MON
MOS
SQM