FROeelin Wrong...?

It's actually as simple as:
1. refineries put off purchasing oil since they sometimes experience backwardation...=the cost of their material is higher than its derivitives...

2. refinery stockpiles run low and they need replenishment...

3. refineries hire tankers to replenish the dwindling supplies...

4. refineries raise prices and bank cash

5. start again at step 1

by the way - shippers are slowing their vessels to conserve fuel - so maybe my buoyancy compensation plan is a good idea - everyone grow a FRO, cut it, and throw it in the sea to help the ships glide along...

I've got a FROeelin..

a freelin that's probly wrong ... oh yeah

*** 05/09/2008 *** and was in a twisterd kinda waze...

I may have cut my FRO and tossed it to the sea so the FROships could sail faster, but I certainly don't think my hairstyle buoyancy compensation plan is responsible for the FRally in FRO as of late. I do have a ridiculous idea or 2 as to why I think this BOOM in Oil prices may have an unexpected affect on FRO...normally - high oil cost = low demand = tanker bad....tanker stock down..:(

but perhaps at some optimum rate of oil cost the table turns due to the related rate of insurance premiums. So as insurance premiums go through the roof raising tanker day rates, but not profit margins - everybody loses right...?

wrong...!

Frontline tanker with the largest fleet of VLCC's dans le monde may have leveraging power to lower many operating costs on a per ship basis, and some that are particularly peculiar now that oil is 80 to 125 a barrel. Savings on the cost of insurance and crewing operations is where larger scale shipping companies may have financial advantages compared to smaller competitors who cannot spread out their risk portfolios to satisfy underwriters or dockside logistical suppliers and service providers when negotiating insurance rates or operational port facility rates respectively. Competitors actual rates to customers are raised across the board to accommodate for rising industry rates for common services like insurance etc...

The margin breaks at some point and extra profit FRO has from this difference allows them to experience significantly higher margins than smaller competitors...

***05/09/2008 --> Unreliable Fact-Checking Update *** HAHa...the irony here is delightful - the above theory turned out to seemingly to be quite humorously twisted... - turns out FRO's smaller competitors like NAT may be achieving the lowest overall per vessel running rates in the SuezMax industry at least... and by outsourcing the above mentioned hypothesized services....guess who a major outsourcing service provider is to NAT --> Frontline Tanker Ltd.! HAhA......So interestingly, FRO cannot achieve the lowest per ship rates but can leverage it's operations to provide OSsvcs enabling others to lower their rates...hmm--> i have a lot of ideas about this right now but before i start conjecturing....I'm going to go to Friday night... :)


or..

there's always the downside... if the price of oil goes down ... demand will go up and tankers will be even busier ...


every campaign of business pleasure or otherwise probably requires a standby oil reserve to garauntee smooth operations against a diverse set of contingencies... bla bla bla .... this is starting to sound like it belongs on blarchive.com

almost forgot - I said two ways... - as the price of the cargo goes up the overall shipping cost becomes less of a percentage of the total cost to buyers - so incremental tanker day rate increases may not be as big of a nuisance as they once were

in other words - I have no idea...but FRO goes up and FRO goes down...churning out dividends all year round..

Walking on the Wild Side Again...

IPI - Intrepid Potash

This is some hot sh*#...

had to get some - although I still think this is risky - I may pick up more if under 50

good luck if you like the frightening unknown to surprise you either way...

for those of you who are screaming greening...
with the price of potash over-doubling as of late, and demand continuing to out pace available production capacities...cleaner practices involving re-uptake from run off will surely start to become more feasible in terms of profitability...

here's another spot for innovation - stretching the yield of traditional fertilizers by altering pre-delivery preparatory, delivery, and re-uptake methods to maximize energy conversion of the fertilizer...

I have a few ideas already...

Tankers in the Sky with Diamonds

Do we have to have another stale news report - will I ever shut up about the tankers in the sky?

No, not this time and probably not....


more on this later...suffice it to say today jets are burning up all the fuel and companies like XTO will profit from rising fuel costs and all sorts of tendencies to substitute with natural gas for reasonable applications where other forms of fuel were once used in lieu de NatGas...

or they will just keep growing 20% per year in production while ending each year with more reserves than the previous...


either way this is a strong equity brand...

XTO - buy a little here a little there and more on the dips

2K Eagle Millenium Resolution Strategy Revision

Light wave trials particle ularly dark roly poly wormy holy swirlions and universal matter splatter flatter theories ... Part 1: In The Shade of Tomorrow's Sun
...accidentally learn to blindly train Seeing Eye dogs and then walk through life eyes closed mind open – knowing that even if dogs become lost … another can be trained while searching...and keep walking confidently ... eyes closed ... mind open ...

alas...
answers can be discovered ...
...for those the truth reveals

some nurture sprouts of earths...
...others heal entropies quirks

whichever eyes mind's desire applies to open...
...might SeaWorlds spinning flows full of twirling swirls beneath the tossed 2nFRO's

forward strobing of future flashy glows are all we see with common insights toes...
...eyes to see what's missed the most important of all
can't be found with noon-shower spotlights 5 eyes and a scope...
...if simple intuition and knowledge are all eyes nose

Futuristic Channel Surfing...

gandering mathematicals and simplisms to make guestemations with magnanormously and significantly plausible degrees of impact intensity variance bounded within the higher-order positively skewed outcome ranges...

so - looking for possible future trading ranges using simplistic equations and some visual queues

XOM ~|104.96 ~ 125.29|
FRO ~|65.72 ~ 77.82|
AAPL ~|186.01 ~ 369.12|
PBR ~|186.69 ~ 179.1| ~ this stock is inside out and may split...
GOOG ~|982 ~ 1312|
POT ~|232.74 ~ 216.4| ~ this stock is inside out and may split...
COP ~|110.66 ~ 130.3|
RIO ~|51.7 ~ 60.54|
BOOM ~|101.57 ~ 113.99|* - this stock has a strong likely hood of rapidly hitting 53

*pattern and score seems whacked

2008 Retrades Adds & Drops

Retrades of previously closed positions:
POT
AMSC
BOOM
ACH
SGR
DSTI
AUY


New Positions in 2008:
AGU
ABB
NTDOY
RIO
YHOO
TOGNUM
SHI

schnitzel trades abounding around core positions:
AAPL
GOOG
PBR ~187|
BOOM
AMSC
POT
FRO
FCEL

DROPPED:
FSLR (upper technical bound is way out~536| and PE is enormous)

Psychotrade eSpeciale

PZE is testing 13 again ... following a downward sloping channel of normalizing response to an incorrect news report/correction spike - the effect is nearing an end and there should be another wave of slightly larger ripples for the most daring traders as this neurotransmitter FrenziFest finally settles on a baseline price ...

Well you might ask -- why is this a special case -- stocks go up too high and fall al the time - settle to a baseline and once the re-corrections are dissipated there's usuallya strong likelihood for severely delaying PopLackage cycle or 2 before retesting the over-correction wave pattern's lower shelf boundaries...

answer:
in this case the stock was up with some momentum already and then was artificially inflated HUGE in a relatively small time accelerating and amplifying existing momentum while bringing heavy share volumes from new investors thereby adding even more intrinsic momentum to the table...--however refineries in 3rd world countries became riskier just as the re-correction waves began starting them in a downward sloping channel -- this resulted in the normalization process seeking too low a price so once it was complete the stock popped again and retested 13 where it left off - this is now..

But Wait - there's more -

so now the stock has to find where it would be if it's trend had continued without disruption by this new event that sent it instantly sailing into the stratosphere..

my best guess is that it will at the very least begin to unfurl an expanding wave pattern sloping upwardly toward 16 - with various extreme falling knife points along the way making HUGE trading opportunities for those who beg for pain where mercy has never been found...Timing these - if they occur - will be a tedious nightmare that I will have to miss out on .. :)

numbers@mac.com

AUY To Top @ 24.4...?

What is the Question....This or That?

FedWheelin...

Just like any proper four wheeling adventure: While the Fed navigates along the bumpy market bottoms, most of the deepest holes to oblivion will only be visible as we're steered around them. It can seem quite scary staring down at dark puddles that could flip your entire vehicle right-upside down, and to make it worse - the Fed's and Market people are only human too - they have to play around a little for LearninSake - this means a few minor holes are steered into with vigor as we bounce around the catastrophic ones - even an occasional hole in the road where no major one is being averted at all - a seemingly simple YeeHa maneuver resulting to bounce some people out the back of the truck - a residual resilient exhilarant effect leftover from experiencing scared people jumping off on previous deliberate recovery bounces, but when those thought the vehicle was going to flip and sometimes with a same driver didn't in fact not letting down...and no flip occurred at all...

Don't be a jumper - never go off the Truck...!!!

Fueling up the Truck is a continuous Effort...
The following are rated suitable-so-far and can be loaded at will...but as with any heavy material - loading in small pieces wherever possible is recommended
AAPL
GOOG
PBR
FRO
TNP
COP
RDS.A
UTX

AVAV
BOOM
AMSC
FCEL
POT
FSLR
DSTI
PFCE

All that Glitters...

watch for new lows on AUY for re-entry opportunities...
Looking @ Levels:
9.4 ~ 10.3 ~ 11.2 ~ 12.1 ~ 13 ~ 13.9 ~ 14.8|

I like AUY @ 12.1...
...am comfortable up to 14.8
but am sold at levels of late...

Seeking the Long Haul...

on short notice...my favorite place to be lost in the midst of tribulations aligned with better realities all around...let's face it...we're now in the most volatile stock market that has ever existed, yet so many entities are reaching all time record levels of stability across their stranded quantum footprints...

the best thing to do here is to focus on the best of the best - buy the dips and squirrel away your expectations - find your way to an employer who is headed for better excellence --> buckle up and launch yourself into the existential spread across quanta-space.time framework laid before you...

Now is the time to ready for a long running expansion of contracted entities which compress the collective Jing of their entire industries through fulfillment of internally developing maturation concurrently with intrinsically enhanced consolidate growth...

If you put your life there you'd need a reason better to invest...? - so if you aren't supporting your own interests - now is the time to start...think about increasing your proportion of new investment to your own companies stock...or what are you doing with your life...I certainly wish that was an easy question to answer...but it's not, so close one eye at a time so you can't gain a fully visual impact of this mostly painful market that will inevitably become a transparently invisible blip in the history of our charts...

Slowly targeting bottom impact events on the following stocks which are showing their Bounce along the bottom...==>try to buy these near-to below their recent lows...::

the ones to get which inflect major waves of future market flurries and storms powering amongst "societelectrostruchanical" necessity...

ATP_U - Canadian or (ATPWF - US)
BPT_U - Canadian
AMSC
FCEL
ABB
BOOM
FSLR
DSTI

or societransactrenderlying inevitability...

AAPL
GOOG
AVAV
COP
PBR
UTX
FRO
TNP
POT

some other trendy guys & gals...still window shopping down here up there and beyond...
narrow baskets here should not lose or lack excessive gain over the next 18 months...

SFL
SHI
RIO
ACH
HON SI GE

Oh Misery...Oh Misery...

What Bear Markets Are To Me...

I used to have some money green...
now I flee the banking scene...

I used to smile and profit free...
now I frown the loss of glee...

Oh Misery Oh Misery...
what the selling does to me...

Bottoms Up...!!!

BOOM +6 points ... Darn - this one is on the shopping list...the problem with shopping lists is that without money to shop they're nothing more than lists...

If you missed your date with a bottom-dwelling darling, don't worry - there will be plenty of traders playing this bottom...


everyone knows that bottoms are rough and a lot of bouncing is likely - so, when 5 to 10 point moves hurl these Ghetto-Fabulous stocks off the bottom, traders will be chopping out profits and creating more buying opportunities...There should be plenty of trading channels developing along the way back up toward the Pacific Heights where stocks will eventually be once they've finally made their way back home following the recession fest...So, for major stocks which have great economic stories - buying on the major dips should offer high likelihoods for rapid profitable trading opportunities... excellent insulation against downside risk is inherently intrinsic to bottom bouncing trades...think about it..if you were being dragged along the bottom and pushed around, you'd bounce up every now and then when the pushing pulls and the bottom contours aligned, combined, and applied their forces to propel you upwardly...since you had been sinking and are still oriented for travel in that direction it takes a few bounces to even get you re-oriented to optimize upward traveling following a push-pull-collide-bounce event...The Key Here IS that when you come back down to ready for another jettison experience - You Hit A Bottom and Stop Falling...so traders love this...they will be buying and popping and selling over and over again...once the push-pull forces start to get stronger and the stocks are comfortably aligned for upward travel they will no longer fall all the way to the bottom anymore, but rather come to rest before reaching the bottom and remain buoyant there until the next move up - falling less and less after each burst as they move farther and farther from bottom - this is not to imply you shouldn't expect the bottom not to drop successively...if the bottom is a slope going down and you are bouncing along in the downward sloping direction - guess what - you can still know you won't fall forever while realizing you are falling lower each time just to get to the SAME BOTTOM.....example - i will not be surprised if Apple sees 118.35 or even as low as 101.42 if things DRAG Along Long Enough before propellants are powerful enough to launch it from the Bottomousphere out into the Profosphere...

Short Term Trading Opportunities Abound:
While the market was BOTTOMING UP - took positions in:
AAPL 128
PBR 90
AUY 14.75

These look great right now, but the lows could be tested again and instant profits can fall off faster than they fell in...expect this to repeat in the short term - up and down - over and over - off and in --

seeking possible Super-Poppers:
BOOM
AMSC
FCEL
AVAV
DSTI
WFR
ESLR
FRO

Embellishing around the core position with Poppers-Extraordinaire:
AAPL
PBR
GOOG

Snorkeling Fringelessly Around the Seas of Prosperities

notice that the Fed's couldn't just leave rates alone in the first place...so that the people who signed loans could continue to operate their micro-economies utilizing the loan products provided to them to work in the interest rate environment for which they were designed...this is all just a way to generate more churn as currency goes in and out of economic flows...instead of just having money jumping in and out of the stock market like a porpoise in the sea, the intentions here seem to be to make dramatic transitions from porpoise to bird - bird to porpoise - stocks to real estate - real estate to stocks - and other investments types - this kind of major rate manipulation stabbing and slicing at American businesses and investors is what continues to keep the flows of all financial markets headed for the most part in the same direction...We obviously are experiencing major turbulences in the flows at the moment therefore many currents are driving values all over the place - some where they would normally never go and when flows begin to return to normal, these values will tend to be carried back toward their original path...identifying these and where to get in as they circle around the Eddies & Tides of this reverse osmosis market the Fed's have delivered to us in testing all their fancy Global Monetary Transporter Influologies on World Economic Flows...

It seems that now the global flow is also being stirred and reverted --> wealth is transitioning all over the world right now --> mostly fundage seems to have been flowing away from the US and now it's coming back...to buy the remaining assets which are tied more directly to the physical properties and attributes of American entities.

The Market is Like a Griddle Full of Pancakes...

They have to be flipped eventually and when they are ... there is always a momentary lapse in predictability while they hover in the air halfway upside down...at this moment some of the batter which is not completely cooked from the last heat-trend exposure goes flying off the sides - some batter droplets luckily land precariously on the sides of the skillet other's land right in the flames...until the pancake lands successfully on the uncooked side, revealing an unburned bottom and beginning to cook on the new side, no one is willing to commit to any condimentary or pancake futures...I mean really - would you buy into plates and syrup if you didn't even know if the pancake was going to crash and burn on the flip...

So what kind of pancakes is the US cooking at the moment...Blueberry, Strawberry, Blackberry...mmmm.....no

We've been serving up WarBerry pancakes, election beignets, and iPhone waffles...etc etc, now we're flipping some war pancakes and everyone wants to know where the burned spots are and if the other side is ready to cook - is the heat too high, which contracts are getting lost in the flip etc

Sprint pancake got flipped right into the fire...apple's iPhone was expected to displace 350,000 sprint customers but the flip revealed a big BURN - 638,000 lost customers and they are trying to blame it on the recession --> sorry Nextel --> Millennium Fashion demands Walkie talkies with color screens...!

Maybe when the AT&T pancake lands this week --> their underbelly earnings will be buttery, glistening, and golden brown --> their cakes extra plump with spill-over dough from the reckless Sprint-Nextel flip-out...!

Bounces Abounding...

If normal laws of physics apply when the ground is reached a falling ball will bounce...

If a full bounce happens now:
FRO ~ 40.289 ~ 44.678 ~| 37.24 is a strong position in FRO --> owning FRO below 37.24 is a boon for long term investors...the latest run will be completed diminished if FRO drops below 29.26...

Bigger Implications...

The Mac Book Air - what a beautiful work of art --> until the flip-out connectors flip out...

anyway - once again - it's not about the product but rather its interconnections among other products together with the experience while doing so...

this AirBook Mac probably creates an equivalent difference of presence in your hands as that of a beautifully hard-bound book printed with 100% acid free materials does from an airport floor-novel paperback.....

The iTunes connected to the MacAir - the Mac Air connected to the Air Extreme - the Air Extreme connected to the Time Capsule - the Time Capsule Connected to all the local Macs & back to the Air Extremes -Do See DO and round we go - spin yur Apple round the barn - etc etc very circular here....

What'd Ya Do...?

SO Far -->

stop buying AUY @ 17