Four Circles

Look closely, can’t you see four perfectly round circles? Or maybe you’ll want to stand way back to see them. Don’t scroll up and down; that might make you queasy!

Charles Munger, USC Business School, 1994

A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom As It Relates To Investment Management & Business


Sanjay Bakshi Articles


Fundoo Professor

{FeHo6} clusters connected via HoI6 units, drawn with displacement ellipsoids at the
90% probability level

Up Up & Away in the S&P balloon ...

1146 ~(1156.22 1166.44)~ 1176.67 ~(1186.89 1197.11)~1207.34 ~(1217.56 1227.78)~ 1238

it where time is what ... shifted and hopped ...

Z-Force ... Created Sly on the Fly ..By TJ

Z Force

S&P 1266 => 1278 => established major inflection ?

or
Down:
992
834
...
...
..
..
.
.
or
Up:
879
1038
1146
1238
1266
1278

S&P 1238 ... next major inflection could Bee ... Buzz ...

879
1038
1146
1238

I detect movement ...

re-entering BPT and adding more WIN AAPL

here we go ...

looking for LOVE in all the wrong places ...

Let's focus on stocks au moment ...
completely out fertilizers, seeds, and most oils this week ...
POT MOS MON RDSA BP BPT
-- NOT selling oil-tanker companies SFL or FRO or integrated COP

took new positions in telephone carriers, financial and tobacco ..
T VZ WIN FTR C MO

looking for opportunity to get back into FNM
-- watching fertilizers and oils too
-- will need to reposition from scratch for next run ...

holding fast FOR NOW:
AAPL BAC C COP FRO FTR GE GS MO MSFT SFL T VZ WIN

major inflection occurred at S&P 1146 ... this could be a point at which consolidation will need some time to take out ...

keeping a Heart of Volcanic Lava ... gotta love the pain of suffering and elation of gain ...

S&P 1146 May and Bee ... buzzz

there are legs that never fell - watch out

the dollar and bonds T's and stuff ...
health care industries
commercial real-estate

could be another roller-coaster ride ... readying for that ... selling into the strength at the moment

stagger-in is the way to a grin!
stagger-out to stop a shout!

Happy New Year !

Commodity Hideout ....

upcoming market retraces could see commodity divergences form ...

looking to add more Dirts & Seeds .. and maybe even some Big Earls...
... preferably when markets dip - if the dips down come

BP RDSA BPT
POT
MOS
MON

remember ~ the Health Care Leg has NOT Cracked Yet ~ & its industry is undergoing Surgical Orthopedic-Trauma au moment ... It will later need Traumatic Orthopedic-Surgery, but that's another story for another day

perhaps the Health Care Debacle will be the driving force used to over-correct these over-heated markets - perhaps not

perhaps the markets will never correct ~ Think Not for NOT at All or Some at Some for ALL ~ correction that is ...

S & P Break Down on the Upside ...

998.33 ~ 1002.7367 ~ 1007.1432 ~ (1011.55 ~ 1015.9567 ~ 1020.3632 ~ 1024.77) ~ 1038


919 ~(932.22 945.44)~ 958.67 ~(971.22 984.44)~998.33 ~(1011.55 1024.77)~ 1038

Energy Time - Round 2 ..

look for bad market-day opportunities to trickle a little Oil back into play
BPT
BP
COP
RDSA

S & P Continued Forward Might Inflect ...

919 ~(932.22 945.44)~ 958.67 ~(971.22 984.44)~998.33 ~(1011.55 1024.77)~ 1038

The S& P to 919 ~ 1038 ~ and Beyond ?

Looks like it couldn't hold above 888 most of the day – this was not great news

Now if it trades to 903ish, holds, then breaks 919 - we could be seeing 1038 very soon ~ or not ~ and then its 873 on down to 829

Trading ranges could be inflected along the points shown below:

S&P = N =~ 873 (878 883) 888 (893 898) 903 (908 913) ~ 919

So that’s the S&P for now

Wave Patterns Emerge Again ...

A rudimentary historically-based wave calculation shows BAC as finding at least some kind of major peak at around 8ish, but this could easily become a 10+ dollar stock since there has been so much mechanical future-pressure applied to hold it down against current forces which are not understood anymore - if the current forces turn out to be "strong-positive" then a huge pop will occur if the future-fear-forces are removed - this is true for a lot of stock right now - I just use BAC as an example since it is such a huge one which may be partially-fundamental to our economy and recovery - the same would be true for GE XOM WFC etc etc etc...

The market is now presenting normal signs of a healing set of patients who just found hope together and they’re all forgetting about their terminal or debilitating illnesses or conditions for a night of pain-deference, smiling, and dancing – but when the party ends and patients have a chance to rest then wake up; some will have backs that hurt – some won’t be able to get back out of bed again easily or at all after the big sleep-off – others will be stronger from the activity – it will have helped their failing bodies heal and stimulate internally with endocrine-like exercise-factors so to speak – ie strong companies are building internal confidence among their ranks while dancing to the current market tunes with astute, agile, accountable, and admirable composure …

Energy Time ..

looks like energy is ...
well
pretty important by any stretch of the imagination...so it isn't long before everyone realizes that most can't:
plant and fertilize seeds without some kind of oil - weather Bee it fossil, bio, or myco fuels ... abundance never happens without it ...

facilitate any major infrastructure projects or transport significant materials

Defend our nation and watchover planet earth ... etc

look for short term whatevers - but this next driving season should be a whopper in relative terms ... relative to:
A big driving season should follow this past one characterized by rising gas prices...then falling home prices...overall a disproportionate amount of liberated drivers should cause a relative surge in 2009 driving season activity...
So getting in early with the following basket was the idea .. now lets see how long this idea lasts... :)
BP
RDSA
COP
XOM
CVX

Washed Out ...Hopefully at the Top of a Wave ...

Testing a new volatility trading style:
away with some short term holds - when a day or few yields between 2.5 & 50% you have to take some off the table right? - you'd think so - but it's about the hardest thing in the real world of psychological twists and turns ...

here it went .. out of
ABB
MDR
SGR
BAC *
GOOG *
IPI
POT *
TCK *
EXM *
FCEL

*still holding core positions

power buys:
PLUG
GE

Complete Portfolio Additions on the Move...

Power Infrastructure and Financial Stocks to keep an eye on ... They have popped nicely from a near term bottom ... Now the difficult decision is whether to take the near term profits or let them try harder for greater heights in the market... well, the only thing here is that volatility rules but the market still has to take out DOW 15K eventually ... how long is eventually and how many scrapes along the bottom are left ... right, therein lies the difficulty - never sell core positions lest the move to DOW 15K leave the sidelines burning with desire but no irons in the fire ... so if BAC gives 50% gain in 1 day it may be fun to take some now ... but never sell the cow ...

ABB
MDR
SGR
BAC
C

Happy Trades are Here Again !