XOM ~|104.96 ~ 125.29|
FRO ~|65.72 ~ 77.82|
AAPL ~|186.01 ~ 369.12|
PBR ~|93.35 ~ 89.55|
GOOG ~|982 ~ 1312|
POT ~|232.74 ~ 216.4| ~ inside out volumetrically . fertiliz-E-ternity - split therapy
COP ~|110.66 ~ 130.3|
RIO ~|51.7 ~ 60.54|
XTO ~ |74.06 ~ 75.76 ~ 87.5|
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Friday, May 09, 2008
AMSC Swing Hi.. Swing Low...
this is a reminder to look at the tremendous swings to the downside experienced just recently following pops - +plus+ the fact that earnings are not yet actually positive...
I am very cautious on AMSC since I don''t know how fast they will build an order backlog which has proven profit reserves...
I love this stock --> smaller electric ship motor/generator components to windmill and power plant +plus+ electrical transmission components...
what a power play in todays world when the US Navy probably wants to go electric everywhere they can...and everyone knows the wind-power story by now..cheapest alternative to natural gas..profitable right away..etc...
do not forget how recently this was had for 17-19 ... so expecting 24.xx - 27.xx seems not so highly unlikely -- hold tight sit back and hope no news comes in for while...another pop in this stockorn popper may be on its way...
I am very cautious on AMSC since I don''t know how fast they will build an order backlog which has proven profit reserves...
I love this stock --> smaller electric ship motor/generator components to windmill and power plant +plus+ electrical transmission components...
what a power play in todays world when the US Navy probably wants to go electric everywhere they can...and everyone knows the wind-power story by now..cheapest alternative to natural gas..profitable right away..etc...
do not forget how recently this was had for 17-19 ... so expecting 24.xx - 27.xx seems not so highly unlikely -- hold tight sit back and hope no news comes in for while...another pop in this stockorn popper may be on its way...
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Pop Goes the SuperMill...
AMSC --> this company has so many exciting things bubbling from the R&D pots...ready to go beyond the mere spillings and sloshings into commercialization cities all around...to full blown serv-it-up platters of viable technology meals - full course meals of various exotic styles
I wouldn't know where to start to guess as to which things are actually happening - suffice it say - things are happening ...
the stock +plus+ its activities in the news are like popcorn kernels settling and bouncing around in a shaky market pot of hot oily greeds frustrations & fears...
when the heat(market) and kernel[news(corn syrup)+equity(shell)] have appropriate trajectoral alignment (ie the kernel is beneath the oil where it's hot enough and for a long enough time to pop on news energy), then the stockorn can pop out of the market's oily grip and fly off in some direction - often ricocheting off adjacent near-concurrent micro/macro news force events -- ex AMSC had popped this morning after brimming to the surface of it's oil bowl for weeks which is ~27is - the news was hot and popped the kernel up up and away to 31ish ... on its way down however it ricocheted off an adjacent broad macro-market force event - ==ie general market positive sentiment with frenzied end of day buying -- an eod rally that ricocheted AMSC to over 32.14 on the close --> therefore... possibly into another oil pot with a higher heat source...although possible not .. and could settle back, however unlike real popcorn, stockorn could encounter another pop ... I hope the following series of price projectures is rapidly taken out to create buying opportunities under 27.37 soon...
AMSC 32.77 ~ 31.87 ~ 30.97 ~ 30.07 ~ 29.17 ~28.27 ~ 27.37| ~ 26.47 ~ 25.57 ~ 24.67|
I would love to get trades on again'n 3rds below 27.37
this stock is ratcheting up though and these may need to be taken in the new pot so to speak -- well above 27.37--> we may surely near to skim the surface of the old pot at least once again...even if it is going higher right away...
if super strong conditions hold this up one strategy is to buy 25% at each of the following price points:
31.87 ~ 30.97 ~ 30.07 ~ 29.17
only make sure this represents less than half your desired position so that if it goes below 27ish - over-doubling down can more than make up for the cost of money you've at that point bought yourself into spending over time while waiting but not earning elsewhere from this same basis...
I wouldn't know where to start to guess as to which things are actually happening - suffice it say - things are happening ...
the stock +plus+ its activities in the news are like popcorn kernels settling and bouncing around in a shaky market pot of hot oily greeds frustrations & fears...
when the heat(market) and kernel[news(corn syrup)+equity(shell)] have appropriate trajectoral alignment (ie the kernel is beneath the oil where it's hot enough and for a long enough time to pop on news energy), then the stockorn can pop out of the market's oily grip and fly off in some direction - often ricocheting off adjacent near-concurrent micro/macro news force events -- ex AMSC had popped this morning after brimming to the surface of it's oil bowl for weeks which is ~27is - the news was hot and popped the kernel up up and away to 31ish ... on its way down however it ricocheted off an adjacent broad macro-market force event - ==ie general market positive sentiment with frenzied end of day buying -- an eod rally that ricocheted AMSC to over 32.14 on the close --> therefore... possibly into another oil pot with a higher heat source...although possible not .. and could settle back, however unlike real popcorn, stockorn could encounter another pop ... I hope the following series of price projectures is rapidly taken out to create buying opportunities under 27.37 soon...
AMSC 32.77 ~ 31.87 ~ 30.97 ~ 30.07 ~ 29.17 ~28.27 ~ 27.37| ~ 26.47 ~ 25.57 ~ 24.67|
I would love to get trades on again'n 3rds below 27.37
this stock is ratcheting up though and these may need to be taken in the new pot so to speak -- well above 27.37--> we may surely near to skim the surface of the old pot at least once again...even if it is going higher right away...
if super strong conditions hold this up one strategy is to buy 25% at each of the following price points:
31.87 ~ 30.97 ~ 30.07 ~ 29.17
only make sure this represents less than half your desired position so that if it goes below 27ish - over-doubling down can more than make up for the cost of money you've at that point bought yourself into spending over time while waiting but not earning elsewhere from this same basis...
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Seeking out Niblets...
Possible Niblets under Consideration:
SGR
MDR
BIP
BBEP
TRP
Watching for Dips:
COP
RDSA
XOM
CVX
FRO watch:
FRO - watch for major swings - don't know if it's gonna be up or it's gonna be down...! eek...
SGR
MDR
BIP
BBEP
TRP
Watching for Dips:
COP
RDSA
XOM
CVX
FRO watch:
FRO - watch for major swings - don't know if it's gonna be up or it's gonna be down...! eek...
Complete Portfolio Update...
V AAPL GOOG NTDOY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AVAV FCEL AMSC
POT IPI AGU
~~~~~~~~~~
BOOM RIO
PBR XTO
~~~~~~
FRO
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AVAV FCEL AMSC
POT IPI AGU
~~~~~~~~~~
BOOM RIO
PBR XTO
~~~~~~
FRO
Friday, May 02, 2008
Let Me Refraze
"
BOOM ~|101.57 ~ 113.99|* - this stock has a strong likely hood of rapidly hitting 53
*pattern and score seems whacked
"
I did note the score and pattern looked whacked - face it - the chart looked droopy too and 101 - 113.99 -> still exclaim the score looks whacked and the pattern looks droopy - i rate this stock popcorn and you should use sparingly...together with a proper diet of healthy stocks...
or splatting down to 35...which is what happened today -->
in the longer of the run.. BOOM's financial capacities may be able to continue to match demand even in rising commodity-cost environments...buying fertilizer for explosions, gas for welding, and of course steel and such raw materials etc is no cheap venture.
So with higher explosive materials, fuel, and steel costs the larger sales revenues are actually inflated in relation to the net income...offset by pass-through charges for higher steel prices and certainly flat out losses due to higher fuel and explosive materials costs....
perhaps BOOM has a maximum financing capacity and recent extreme costliness of executing ventures has slowed their pace to limit output while concurrently raising sales prices and shrinking profits...If this is the case - banks and financiers might fix this problem by the end of next quarter or so and then eventually back to BOOMsness it could be...maybe BOOM needs more physical plant capacity together with greater in-demand product diversities either through intrinsic or gobbly innovation --> all solutions will need capitalization followed by successful expansion in order to effectuate growth...
some new small exposures here may be appropriate for possible heroic gains again...
was down to 50 shares exposure but tripled that yesterday on the bad news...
This is a Long Term Hold and has potential for walloping gains over time...however, right now there is a possibility for a bounce..or heaven forbid, another waterfall down to 30ish...either way 39 to 44 is likely in the cards for this in the near term for at least a short duration and the long term still sees 53 easy...if BOOM can figure out how to adjust their activities to produce profit by-products....
BOOM ~|101.57 ~ 113.99|* - this stock has a strong likely hood of rapidly hitting 53
*pattern and score seems whacked
"
I did note the score and pattern looked whacked - face it - the chart looked droopy too and 101 - 113.99 -> still exclaim the score looks whacked and the pattern looks droopy - i rate this stock popcorn and you should use sparingly...together with a proper diet of healthy stocks...
or splatting down to 35...which is what happened today -->
in the longer of the run.. BOOM's financial capacities may be able to continue to match demand even in rising commodity-cost environments...buying fertilizer for explosions, gas for welding, and of course steel and such raw materials etc is no cheap venture.
So with higher explosive materials, fuel, and steel costs the larger sales revenues are actually inflated in relation to the net income...offset by pass-through charges for higher steel prices and certainly flat out losses due to higher fuel and explosive materials costs....
perhaps BOOM has a maximum financing capacity and recent extreme costliness of executing ventures has slowed their pace to limit output while concurrently raising sales prices and shrinking profits...If this is the case - banks and financiers might fix this problem by the end of next quarter or so and then eventually back to BOOMsness it could be...maybe BOOM needs more physical plant capacity together with greater in-demand product diversities either through intrinsic or gobbly innovation --> all solutions will need capitalization followed by successful expansion in order to effectuate growth...
some new small exposures here may be appropriate for possible heroic gains again...
was down to 50 shares exposure but tripled that yesterday on the bad news...
This is a Long Term Hold and has potential for walloping gains over time...however, right now there is a possibility for a bounce..or heaven forbid, another waterfall down to 30ish...either way 39 to 44 is likely in the cards for this in the near term for at least a short duration and the long term still sees 53 easy...if BOOM can figure out how to adjust their activities to produce profit by-products....
Thursday, April 24, 2008
FROeelin Wrong...?
It's actually as simple as:
1. refineries put off purchasing oil since they sometimes experience backwardation...=the cost of their material is higher than its derivitives...
2. refinery stockpiles run low and they need replenishment...
3. refineries hire tankers to replenish the dwindling supplies...
4. refineries raise prices and bank cash
5. start again at step 1
by the way - shippers are slowing their vessels to conserve fuel - so maybe my buoyancy compensation plan is a good idea - everyone grow a FRO, cut it, and throw it in the sea to help the ships glide along...
1. refineries put off purchasing oil since they sometimes experience backwardation...=the cost of their material is higher than its derivitives...
2. refinery stockpiles run low and they need replenishment...
3. refineries hire tankers to replenish the dwindling supplies...
4. refineries raise prices and bank cash
5. start again at step 1
by the way - shippers are slowing their vessels to conserve fuel - so maybe my buoyancy compensation plan is a good idea - everyone grow a FRO, cut it, and throw it in the sea to help the ships glide along...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
I've got a FROeelin..
a freelin that's probly wrong ... oh yeah
*** 05/09/2008 *** and was in a twisterd kinda waze...
I may have cut my FRO and tossed it to the sea so the FROships could sail faster, but I certainly don't think my hairstyle buoyancy compensation plan is responsible for the FRally in FRO as of late. I do have a ridiculous idea or 2 as to why I think this BOOM in Oil prices may have an unexpected affect on FRO...normally - high oil cost = low demand = tanker bad....tanker stock down..:(
but perhaps at some optimum rate of oil cost the table turns due to the related rate of insurance premiums. So as insurance premiums go through the roof raising tanker day rates, but not profit margins - everybody loses right...?
wrong...!
Frontline tanker with the largest fleet of VLCC's dans le monde may have leveraging power to lower many operating costs on a per ship basis, and some that are particularly peculiar now that oil is 80 to 125 a barrel. Savings on the cost of insurance and crewing operations is where larger scale shipping companies may have financial advantages compared to smaller competitors who cannot spread out their risk portfolios to satisfy underwriters or dockside logistical suppliers and service providers when negotiating insurance rates or operational port facility rates respectively. Competitors actual rates to customers are raised across the board to accommodate for rising industry rates for common services like insurance etc...
The margin breaks at some point and extra profit FRO has from this difference allows them to experience significantly higher margins than smaller competitors...
***05/09/2008 --> Unreliable Fact-Checking Update *** HAHa...the irony here is delightful - the above theory turned out to seemingly to be quite humorously twisted... - turns out FRO's smaller competitors like NAT may be achieving the lowest overall per vessel running rates in the SuezMax industry at least... and by outsourcing the above mentioned hypothesized services....guess who a major outsourcing service provider is to NAT --> Frontline Tanker Ltd.! HAhA......So interestingly, FRO cannot achieve the lowest per ship rates but can leverage it's operations to provide OSsvcs enabling others to lower their rates...hmm--> i have a lot of ideas about this right now but before i start conjecturing....I'm going to go to Friday night... :)
or..
there's always the downside... if the price of oil goes down ... demand will go up and tankers will be even busier ...
every campaign of business pleasure or otherwise probably requires a standby oil reserve to garauntee smooth operations against a diverse set of contingencies... bla bla bla .... this is starting to sound like it belongs on blarchive.com
almost forgot - I said two ways... - as the price of the cargo goes up the overall shipping cost becomes less of a percentage of the total cost to buyers - so incremental tanker day rate increases may not be as big of a nuisance as they once were
in other words - I have no idea...but FRO goes up and FRO goes down...churning out dividends all year round..
*** 05/09/2008 *** and was in a twisterd kinda waze...
I may have cut my FRO and tossed it to the sea so the FROships could sail faster, but I certainly don't think my hairstyle buoyancy compensation plan is responsible for the FRally in FRO as of late. I do have a ridiculous idea or 2 as to why I think this BOOM in Oil prices may have an unexpected affect on FRO...normally - high oil cost = low demand = tanker bad....tanker stock down..:(
but perhaps at some optimum rate of oil cost the table turns due to the related rate of insurance premiums. So as insurance premiums go through the roof raising tanker day rates, but not profit margins - everybody loses right...?
wrong...!
Frontline tanker with the largest fleet of VLCC's dans le monde may have leveraging power to lower many operating costs on a per ship basis, and some that are particularly peculiar now that oil is 80 to 125 a barrel. Savings on the cost of insurance and crewing operations is where larger scale shipping companies may have financial advantages compared to smaller competitors who cannot spread out their risk portfolios to satisfy underwriters or dockside logistical suppliers and service providers when negotiating insurance rates or operational port facility rates respectively. Competitors actual rates to customers are raised across the board to accommodate for rising industry rates for common services like insurance etc...
The margin breaks at some point and extra profit FRO has from this difference allows them to experience significantly higher margins than smaller competitors...
***05/09/2008 --> Unreliable Fact-Checking Update *** HAHa...the irony here is delightful - the above theory turned out to seemingly to be quite humorously twisted... - turns out FRO's smaller competitors like NAT may be achieving the lowest overall per vessel running rates in the SuezMax industry at least... and by outsourcing the above mentioned hypothesized services....guess who a major outsourcing service provider is to NAT --> Frontline Tanker Ltd.! HAhA......So interestingly, FRO cannot achieve the lowest per ship rates but can leverage it's operations to provide OSsvcs enabling others to lower their rates...hmm--> i have a lot of ideas about this right now but before i start conjecturing....I'm going to go to Friday night... :)
or..
there's always the downside... if the price of oil goes down ... demand will go up and tankers will be even busier ...
every campaign of business pleasure or otherwise probably requires a standby oil reserve to garauntee smooth operations against a diverse set of contingencies... bla bla bla .... this is starting to sound like it belongs on blarchive.com
almost forgot - I said two ways... - as the price of the cargo goes up the overall shipping cost becomes less of a percentage of the total cost to buyers - so incremental tanker day rate increases may not be as big of a nuisance as they once were
in other words - I have no idea...but FRO goes up and FRO goes down...churning out dividends all year round..
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Walking on the Wild Side Again...
IPI - Intrepid Potash
This is some hot sh*#...
had to get some - although I still think this is risky - I may pick up more if under 50
good luck if you like the frightening unknown to surprise you either way...
for those of you who are screaming greening...
with the price of potash over-doubling as of late, and demand continuing to out pace available production capacities...cleaner practices involving re-uptake from run off will surely start to become more feasible in terms of profitability...
here's another spot for innovation - stretching the yield of traditional fertilizers by altering pre-delivery preparatory, delivery, and re-uptake methods to maximize energy conversion of the fertilizer...
I have a few ideas already...
This is some hot sh*#...
had to get some - although I still think this is risky - I may pick up more if under 50
good luck if you like the frightening unknown to surprise you either way...
for those of you who are screaming greening...
with the price of potash over-doubling as of late, and demand continuing to out pace available production capacities...cleaner practices involving re-uptake from run off will surely start to become more feasible in terms of profitability...
here's another spot for innovation - stretching the yield of traditional fertilizers by altering pre-delivery preparatory, delivery, and re-uptake methods to maximize energy conversion of the fertilizer...
I have a few ideas already...
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Tankers in the Sky with Diamonds
Do we have to have another stale news report - will I ever shut up about the tankers in the sky?
No, not this time and probably not....
more on this later...suffice it to say today jets are burning up all the fuel and companies like XTO will profit from rising fuel costs and all sorts of tendencies to substitute with natural gas for reasonable applications where other forms of fuel were once used in lieu de NatGas...
or they will just keep growing 20% per year in production while ending each year with more reserves than the previous...
either way this is a strong equity brand...
XTO - buy a little here a little there and more on the dips
No, not this time and probably not....
more on this later...suffice it to say today jets are burning up all the fuel and companies like XTO will profit from rising fuel costs and all sorts of tendencies to substitute with natural gas for reasonable applications where other forms of fuel were once used in lieu de NatGas...
or they will just keep growing 20% per year in production while ending each year with more reserves than the previous...
either way this is a strong equity brand...
XTO - buy a little here a little there and more on the dips
2K Eagle Millenium Resolution Strategy Revision
Light wave trials particle ularly dark roly poly wormy holy swirlions and universal matter splatter flatter theories ... Part 1: In The Shade of Tomorrow's Sun
...accidentally learn to blindly train Seeing Eye dogs and then walk through life eyes closed mind open – knowing that even if dogs become lost … another can be trained while searching...and keep walking confidently ... eyes closed ... mind open ...
alas...
answers can be discovered ...
...for those the truth reveals
some nurture sprouts of earths...
...others heal entropies quirks
whichever eyes mind's desire applies to open...
...might SeaWorlds spinning flows full of twirling swirls beneath the tossed 2nFRO's
forward strobing of future flashy glows are all we see with common insights toes...
...eyes to see what's missed the most important of all
can't be found with noon-shower spotlights 5 eyes and a scope...
...if simple intuition and knowledge are all eyes nose
...accidentally learn to blindly train Seeing Eye dogs and then walk through life eyes closed mind open – knowing that even if dogs become lost … another can be trained while searching...and keep walking confidently ... eyes closed ... mind open ...
alas...
answers can be discovered ...
...for those the truth reveals
some nurture sprouts of earths...
...others heal entropies quirks
whichever eyes mind's desire applies to open...
...might SeaWorlds spinning flows full of twirling swirls beneath the tossed 2nFRO's
forward strobing of future flashy glows are all we see with common insights toes...
...eyes to see what's missed the most important of all
can't be found with noon-shower spotlights 5 eyes and a scope...
...if simple intuition and knowledge are all eyes nose
Futuristic Channel Surfing...
gandering mathematicals and simplisms to make guestemations with magnanormously and significantly plausible degrees of impact intensity variance bounded within the higher-order positively skewed outcome ranges...
so - looking for possible future trading ranges using simplistic equations and some visual queues
XOM ~|104.96 ~ 125.29|
FRO ~|65.72 ~ 77.82|
AAPL ~|186.01 ~ 369.12|
PBR ~|186.69 ~ 179.1| ~ this stock is inside out and may split...
GOOG ~|982 ~ 1312|
POT ~|232.74 ~ 216.4| ~ this stock is inside out and may split...
COP ~|110.66 ~ 130.3|
RIO ~|51.7 ~ 60.54|
BOOM ~|101.57 ~ 113.99|* - this stock has a strong likely hood of rapidly hitting 53
*pattern and score seems whacked
so - looking for possible future trading ranges using simplistic equations and some visual queues
XOM ~|104.96 ~ 125.29|
FRO ~|65.72 ~ 77.82|
AAPL ~|186.01 ~ 369.12|
PBR ~|186.69 ~ 179.1| ~ this stock is inside out and may split...
GOOG ~|982 ~ 1312|
POT ~|232.74 ~ 216.4| ~ this stock is inside out and may split...
COP ~|110.66 ~ 130.3|
RIO ~|51.7 ~ 60.54|
BOOM ~|101.57 ~ 113.99|* - this stock has a strong likely hood of rapidly hitting 53
*pattern and score seems whacked
2008 Retrades Adds & Drops
Retrades of previously closed positions:
POT
AMSC
BOOM
ACH
SGR
DSTI
AUY
New Positions in 2008:
AGU
ABB
NTDOY
RIO
YHOO
TOGNUM
SHI
schnitzel trades abounding around core positions:
AAPL
GOOG
PBR ~187|
BOOM
AMSC
POT
FRO
FCEL
DROPPED:
FSLR (upper technical bound is way out~536| and PE is enormous)
POT
AMSC
BOOM
ACH
SGR
DSTI
AUY
New Positions in 2008:
AGU
ABB
NTDOY
RIO
YHOO
TOGNUM
SHI
schnitzel trades abounding around core positions:
AAPL
GOOG
PBR ~187|
BOOM
AMSC
POT
FRO
FCEL
DROPPED:
FSLR (upper technical bound is way out~536| and PE is enormous)
Psychotrade eSpeciale
PZE is testing 13 again ... following a downward sloping channel of normalizing response to an incorrect news report/correction spike - the effect is nearing an end and there should be another wave of slightly larger ripples for the most daring traders as this neurotransmitter FrenziFest finally settles on a baseline price ...
Well you might ask -- why is this a special case -- stocks go up too high and fall al the time - settle to a baseline and once the re-corrections are dissipated there's usuallya strong likelihood for severely delaying PopLackage cycle or 2 before retesting the over-correction wave pattern's lower shelf boundaries...
answer:
in this case the stock was up with some momentum already and then was artificially inflated HUGE in a relatively small time accelerating and amplifying existing momentum while bringing heavy share volumes from new investors thereby adding even more intrinsic momentum to the table...--however refineries in 3rd world countries became riskier just as the re-correction waves began starting them in a downward sloping channel -- this resulted in the normalization process seeking too low a price so once it was complete the stock popped again and retested 13 where it left off - this is now..
But Wait - there's more -
so now the stock has to find where it would be if it's trend had continued without disruption by this new event that sent it instantly sailing into the stratosphere..
my best guess is that it will at the very least begin to unfurl an expanding wave pattern sloping upwardly toward 16 - with various extreme falling knife points along the way making HUGE trading opportunities for those who beg for pain where mercy has never been found...Timing these - if they occur - will be a tedious nightmare that I will have to miss out on .. :)
Well you might ask -- why is this a special case -- stocks go up too high and fall al the time - settle to a baseline and once the re-corrections are dissipated there's usuallya strong likelihood for severely delaying PopLackage cycle or 2 before retesting the over-correction wave pattern's lower shelf boundaries...
answer:
in this case the stock was up with some momentum already and then was artificially inflated HUGE in a relatively small time accelerating and amplifying existing momentum while bringing heavy share volumes from new investors thereby adding even more intrinsic momentum to the table...--however refineries in 3rd world countries became riskier just as the re-correction waves began starting them in a downward sloping channel -- this resulted in the normalization process seeking too low a price so once it was complete the stock popped again and retested 13 where it left off - this is now..
But Wait - there's more -
so now the stock has to find where it would be if it's trend had continued without disruption by this new event that sent it instantly sailing into the stratosphere..
my best guess is that it will at the very least begin to unfurl an expanding wave pattern sloping upwardly toward 16 - with various extreme falling knife points along the way making HUGE trading opportunities for those who beg for pain where mercy has never been found...Timing these - if they occur - will be a tedious nightmare that I will have to miss out on .. :)
Friday, March 14, 2008
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